Nigeria's economy inherently resides as a mono cultural based economy. It is characterized as a country with a monolithic economy due to its predominant or high dependence on a particular product or sector of the economy which is oil that intrinsically contributes to the bulk of revenue the nation expends or utilizes. This is apparently paradoxical, considering the fact that the country is naturally endowed with an abundance of varied resources that can substantially add to the nation's reserve. According to Ogege & Mojekwu (2012), Nigeria is endowed with various kinds of resources needed to place her amongst the top emerging economies of the world. It is anticipated that Nigeria should be amongst the buoyant and developed economies of the world due to the nature of the huge natural and human resources the country has at its disposal. But however the case of the country is that of one which is yet to experience true national development complemented with its character of an irrational overreliance on a particular export product, oil for the bulk of the nation's revenue when other sectors and resources that can contribute significantly to the nation's economy and development are residing dormant or untapped.
It is interesting to note that Nigeria as a sub-Saharan African country is one of the few countries of the world that is abundantly endowed with an abundance of diverse natural resources. Despite this impressive fact, it is sad to note that a majority of its citizens are wallowing in pervasive poverty even after 50 years of independence. According to Okonjo-Inweala (2003), about 70% of Nigeria's populace live in absolute poverty on a dollar per day or less and it is estimated that it will require an annual GDP growth rate in the order of 7% in order to have the number of people in poverty halved by 2015.
Richards (1950), defines an economy as a system by which a country's money and goods are produced and used, or a country considered this way. To him, the importance of a sound economy cannot be overemphasized.
The economy of any country is highly important to the growth and development of that country as well as the wellbeing, which is nonetheless dependent on how effective those at the forefront of managing such an economy do so Nigeria's economy has the potential to become one of the best economies of the world, if the resources at its disposal are properly utilized however a majority of its natural endowments are yet to be well maximized, which the Transformation Agenda seeks to work on to spur development.
Before oil was discovered and eventually explored to be exported which hitherto contributes to the bulk of the nation's foreign exchange reserves and national revenue especially after the oil boom, agriculture was formerly the mainstay of Nigeria's economy which the nation had highly depended on for its national revenue. By the time Nigeria became politically independent in October 1960, agriculture was the dominant sector of the economy, contributing about 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employing about the same percentage of the working population, and accounting for about 90% of foreign
earnings and Federal Government revenue (Adedipe, 2008). However, though other sectors such as the mining and textile industry were fairly active, the agriculture sector which was centered on had highly benefitted the economy (Adedipe, 2008).
The role of agriculture in transforming both the social and economic framework of an economy can't be overemphasized (Anyanwu et al, 1997). During the colonial times the agricultural sector encompassed the engagement of peasant farmers in the production of more cash crops for sale to be eventually exported to Western Europe, where various Nigerian communities had actively engaged in the production of diverse food and cash crops (Anyanwu et al, 1997). Some of the food and cash crops that were cultivated then include respectively, yam, cocoa yam, cassava (which was grown mostly in the South) as well as oil palm which came from the East, vast production of cocoa from the West, Cotton and Groundnuts from the North (Anyanwu et al, 1997). Nigeria was actively involved in the exportation of these agricultural products which had initially contributed about 57% of Nigeria's GDP in 1929 where oil palm had accounted for about 85-70% of the total exports during the same period. However, during this period Nigeria's agricultural sector was still highly primitive; where the colonial masters had shown no interest or made no obvious attempt to upgrade the agricultural production technology (Anyanwu et al, 1997).
Worrisomely, since independence, the role of agriculture has declined in its contribution to the GDP with a major instigating factor being the discovery of crude oil as well as the deteriorating performance of the sector itself. Its share of the GDP fell from 61.50% in 1963/64 to 14.63% in 1983 (Anyanwu et al, 1997).
The agricultural sector of any country ought to be well catered for as this is the nerve center that envisages or provides for the nation's food security and in the case of Nigeria, the provision of avenues of livelihood for a huge number of the populace. Though, agriculture has been considered important in the national development of developing countries as attested to by Omowale and Rogrigues (1979), nonetheless, in the case of Nigeria the agriculture dais or potentiality of the nation has not been properly harnessed to adequately meet the consumption needs of the teeming populace especially since the exploitation of the oil resource. The output of the agricultural sector overtime has become highly insufficient and is in disequilibrium in proportion to the corresponding needs of the nation, as result of negligence of the sector as well as the unfavorable atmosphere and lacking incentives for the development of agriculture in the country. In addition, notwithstanding the obvious obnoxious negligence of the Nigeria agricultural sector that has suffered decline or deterioration, considering the proposed significance of the agricultural sector in spurring economic development, the Transformation Agenda via its Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) seeks to resuscitate the sector.
Aside the agricultural sector, other sectors such as the industrial or manufacturing and mining/quarrying subsectors had formerly contributed quite well to Nigeria's economy. But over the years, especially following the rigorous oil exploration and exportation activities the Nigerian economy had drifted towards focusing on for its national revenue marshaled by the over-ambitious government and instigated by the oil boom, the performance of these sectors began to decline. For example in the manufacturing subsector, as noted by Anyanwu et al (1997), the growth rate of manufacturing rose from 23.6%n in 1965 to 77% in 1975 but fell drastically to 6.6% in 1980. The Nigerian mining and quarrying sector had formerly specialized in the exploration of solid and liquid minerals and aside from oil, other minerals that were produced in this sub-sector include limestone, coal, cassiterite or tin ore, marble, columbite and natural gas (Anyanwu et al, 1997).
These minerals varied in their total production output, while some like coal, marble and limestone where highly produced and utilized, others such as columbite, tin ore and even the natural gas have been underutilized, which are capable of contributing impressively to the nation's revenue if well maximized. Ogwu(2006) lamented in the National Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) Founder's Day Lecture that unfortunately most of these minerals have remained unexploited while many of them have been exploited arbitrarily miners who are unlicensed miners.
However, the oil sector's dominance had markedly surpassed the contribution of other sectors to the economy of the country. The wrong overreliance on oil had apparently encumbered the development of other sectors that could have contributed to the nation's development which of course had been instigated by the sleazy leaders at the hem of affairs. Many have argued that the discovery of oil was the beginning of Nigeria's problem, especially in her political landscape; where most of the politicians find themselves in a do-or-die power tussle in a bid to have themselves rooted in the government in order to have passable or easy access to the dividends of the national cake, our precious oil proceeds for their egocentric satisfactions. Though, oil has been a significant source of revenue that has impressively contributed to the nation's national reserve, but nevertheless it has been argued to have stirred up the hydra-headed monster of corruption in the country which has been pervasive and that has indisputably debarred progressive national development in the country's terrace. Therefore, one can't but wonder if oil is a blessing or curse to a nation like Nigeria. Ogwu (2006) stated that the discovery of crude oil in the Niger Delta in the second half of the fifties and its exploitation for export to earn foreign exchange soon led to a pathetic situation where there was a gradual abandonment of both the solid minerals and the agricultural sectors, thereby making Nigeria to become a mono-product economy depending more on crude oil exports for more than 90% of her foreign exchange earnings.
Oil, a non-renewable source of energy and a fossil fuel, was first noticed in 1908 at Araromi in the present Ondo state by a German company called the Nigerian Bitumen Corporation (Fasagba, 2007). After many years of research and investment of over N30 million, there was a commercial discovery of petroleum in 1956 (NNPC Diary, 2001). The oil boom era of the 1970's was one of the memorable and economically blissful periods recorded in the history of Nigeria.
However, the crash in the price of oil in the international market took a drastic toll on Nigeria's economy which was badly affected. Thus, as posited by Ezekwesili(2006), the oil boom experienced in the 1970's and its subsequent crash was a lucid evidence of the need of the country to diversify its economy as well as channel resources into productivity-enhancing investments. The former Minister of Solid Mineral Development, Ezekwesili (2006), further argued that Nigerian leaders had a wrong sense of security or overconfidence that oil would persist in its continuous supply of revenue to spur national development, which resulted in their poor manner of initiating policies and institutions. The oil boom witnessed in the second republic lured many able-bodied youths to migrate from their villages into the cities as 'emergency contractors' and the agriculture sector was also neglected which engendered a great shortage of internal food supply whilst spurring an alternative of indulging in the high importation of foodstuffs that had consumed a substantial percentage of the nation's foreign exchange reserve (Ijiomah, 2002).
However, albeit the government had embarked on several economic development projects with some of the proceeds generated from the oil revenue, not all of them were successfully executed. The presence of large oil revenue didn't significantly accelerate national development in the country. Despite Nigeria's oil wealth and status in Africa according to Eneh (2011), the country has been overtaken or surpassed in development by middle 1990's by some other developing countries that were behind Nigeria such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Venezuela as well as Sub-Saharan countries that were behind Nigeria such as Cameroon, Zambia, Senegal, Ghana, Togo and Benin Republic in terms of GNP.
National development planning is a core activity or principle that must be critically embraced and implemented for any nation interested in attaining sustained development. According to Anyanwu et al (1997), planning occupies a key place in economic activities and is an essential medium the state utilizes to guide and accelerate economic development. Even before Nigeria attained independence, two national development plans had been formulated. After independence, more than four national development plans have been initiated both in military and civilian regimes. Though, these development plans had appeared impressive and gratifying in when formulated, the effective and full implementation of these plans has been unrealizable. This has been the trend since Nigeria came into being as a recognized national entity till the 4th republic
Nigeria has not been able to attain a significant level of national development since she gained independence for over fifty years now or since she became a nation in 1914. However, the mono cultural nature of the nation's economy which is predominantly dependent on oil is being conceived to undergo diversification under the Transformation Agenda. In an effort to curtail these challenges of national development that cuts across different areas, not ignorant of the past efforts that have been made to engender this, currently, the Goodluck Jonathan's regime has initiated an Agenda to instill or promote the chances of Nigeria attaining development to a significant height. Tagged the 'Transformation Agenda', this is targeted towards improving various sectors of the nation's economy which would do well in spurring development, part of which is the objective of diversifying the nation's economic base away from a mono-product one, which has been an outcry suggested to help the country's economic development over the years, but hasn't been actualized. This research therefore in this regards would undertake an evaluation of this Transformation Agenda in light to discovering the plans embedded, the achievements so far from what has being and the challenges that have hindered or may hinder the complete realization of the appealing agenda, which would of course determine if this administration's agenda is not just an act of mere sloganeering, but up to the task of engendering the attainment of true development in Nigeria.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
The Nigerian economy is mono cultural as it is predominantly dependent on oil. . Ordinarily, depending on a particular natural resource for the national revenue of a country is a big problem and what makes such dependence on oil particularly problematic is the mismanagement of the sector and accrued resources. The effect is that the accruals from oil becomes insufficient to meet the needs of the country and to spur national development.
Nigeria presents a paradoxical picture of being endowed with an abundance of varied natural resources and still largely being largely dependents on one resource, with other resources and sectors, which are capable of adding to the bulk of the country's revenue residing dormant, untapped or underexploited. As argued by Sala-i and Subramanian (2003), one of the surprising features of economic development history is that economies with abundant natural resources have shown the tendency to grow less rapidly than those without. The country has failed to appropriately diversify its economy to profitable areas that can substantially contribute to development as well as eliminate the challenges that undermine national development. The non-diversification of the Nigerian economy despite the huge deposits of various types of natural resources has deepened its development dilemma.
It appears that the oil sector which is the mainstay of the nation's economy lacks the capacity to meet the country's long term energy needs and consumption. According to African Economic Outlook (2010), in spite Nigeria being the 10th largest oil producer in the world, it imports about 85% of its refined petroleum products. This is principally as a result of low capacity utilization of its four refineries, (at about 30%) as well as frequent breakdowns. Apparently, dependence on the jeopardized oil sector, over time, has partly inhibited national development in the country. Furthermore, the politics prevalent in the country's oil affairs as well as corruption has hindered the citizens or even the country as a whole from enjoying the full dividends that accrue from the black gold. According to African Economic Outlook (2010), the Nigerian oil and gas industry appears to lack transparency, accountability and good governance.
Though Nigeria is accounted to be the 12th largest or major exporter of oil globally with anticipated revenue of about US $52.2 billion as at 2012, it produces only 2.7% of the world's supply (Wikipedia, 2013) and can't boast of several working state-owned refineries as at when Jonathan was sworn in as president. Also, despite the impressive oil resources, the country up till now exports its crude oil in its raw state to be refined abroad before it is finally imported back to Nigeria and sold to the domestic market. Nigeria, albeit being Africa's largest oil producer and the continent's biggest economy, still 'relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products for the servicing of the economy, thereby creating a lucrative market for European refiners and oil traders at the expense of the Nigerian masses,' (energymixreport.com)
Also, there is an adage that says the golden goose that lays the golden egg must never be slaughtered; however with successive governments' negligence of the oil producing communities, they have practically turned deaf ears to this adage as these communities have been left in a horrid state of impoverishment, suffering and neglect.
The Niger Delta region, from where the bulk of the nation's crude oil is derived has its people faced with poverty, poor standards of living, unemployment and environmental degradation from oil exploration activities which the Transformation Agenda however, seeks to salvage.
The dependence of Nigeria on oil, which is a non-renewable source of energy poses a serious threat to its economy and future development both in the short-run and long-run. This is so because it has a high tendency to being depleted; another threat is absence of alternative investment in other sectors as well as the occurrence of price volatility of oil in the international market. Though, since the oil boom era of the 1970's, Nigeria has generated a lot of revenue from oil, but this has not translated to true development. Adenikinju (2010) posits that oil booms merely increased the consumption patterns of both the government and ordinary citizens, without the country developing internal capacity for sustaining them.
Also, with regards to the global warming awareness that has become popular in recent times, many countries are resorting to cleaner means of generating energy as oil though useful, has repercussions on the environment. According to Sambo(2011), even though energy is an important input needed for economic growth, its production, transformation, transmission, distribution and utilization create impacts that turn out to produce negative effects on the environment, in the household, work place, city and at the national, regional and global levels.
Nevertheless, several other factors such as high unemployment rates, insufficient food production to meet the demands of the country's explosive population, high level of poverty, low technology development, dormancy of other sectors of the country's economy, high corruption, political instability, illiteracy, unequal distribution of national revenue, lack of autonomy of states or dependence of states on the federal governments, lack of accurate statistics or data in aiding proper development plan and so on present themselves as major factors that hinder Nigeria's development . These factors needs to be addressed urgently in order to spur faster realization of development in the country.
Efforts over the years in curtailing the challenges to national development as well as spurring development through such policies as national development plans and rolling plans, failed to yield the expected results; most of the goals set to be achieved either ended up half-done as white elephant projects or worse still, unrealized. The effect of poor planning on the economy was, and still is, an upsurge in the scale of unemployment in the country, as school leavers especially graduates could not find jobs (Ijiomah (2002). Underscoring the lack of direction of portrayed in Nigeria's past development agendas, it was stated in a publication by the National Planning Commission that:
Nigeria's development efforts have over the years been characterized by lack of continuity, consistency and commitment (3Cs) to agreed policies, programs and projects as well as an absence of a long-term perspective. The culminating effect has been growth and development of the Nigerian Economy without a concomitant improvement in the overall welfare of Nigerian citizens. Disregard to these 3Cs has resulted in rising unemployment, inequality and poverty. (NPC, 2011:6)
Therefore, in the present regime of President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, new efforts to address the issues confronting national development in Nigeria have been embedded in the plan which is tagged 'Transformation Agenda'. However, one cannot but wonder whether to keep high hopes in optimistic expectation of this Agenda yielding a different and successful result in achieving national development as well as a diversification of the economy away from its overreliance on oil; or to just keep fingers crossed with justified skepticism against the Agenda which is to be seen as just another demagogic act of sloganeering, judging from the angle of the alarming height of official and political corruption prevalent in the country and disappointments from past regimes.
The Transformation Agenda has its thrust to be ensuring the growth and development of the Nigerian economy as well as to improve the standard of living of the Nigerian people via the implementation of its priority policies, programmes and projects (Federal Ministry of Information and Communication, 2011).
1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The questions that this study envisages to address are:
1. To what extent has the transformation Agenda being able to solve the challenges confronting Nigeria's development?
2. Has the Transformation Agenda improved the refining capacity of Nigeria's oil refineries for enhanced domestic consumption
3. Does the Transformation Agenda possess the capacity to spearhead the diversification of Nigeria's mono cultural economy?
1.4 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
1. This research has the rationale of evaluating the transformation Agenda in a bid to find out to what extent it has been able to address the challenges affecting Nigeria's national development by assessing its achievements as well as challenges.
2. It seeks to examine the efforts the Transformation Agenda has put in the oil and gas sector to improve the refining capacity of Nigeria's oil refineries and spur domestic consumption.
3. This research would bring into light the actions of the government under the Transformation Agenda in spearheading its quest for the diversification of Nigeria's economy.
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
This study would provide a better understanding or knowledge of the Nigeria oil sector that happens to be the mainstay of Nigeria's economy in line with its nature of operation, the factors that inhibit its effectiveness and ability to function at full capacity as well as the danger or threat it poses especially with the country's overreliance on it. This research would proffer significant information on the challenges that serve as hindrances to national development. The knowledge garnered and analyzed here would be beneficial to students, graduates in the social sciences as well as business field, policy makers, economists, research fellows or scholars to add more to the knowledge or inspire them to make more critical findings on this issue as well as the government to understand the urgent need for the nation to make quicker steps in formulating plans to diversify the economy away from its mono-product state and in case of having formulated any, make its implementation timely, efficient and more rapid, which would do well in solving a number of the nation's development challenges. It would also bring to light the defects of the attractive but weakly implemented national development plans of the regimes in order to avoid making future errors and ultimately, this research would present workable recommendations that could be useful in solving the nation's development challenges as well as spur the attainment of true national development.
This study would address some important concepts such as development planning which is relevant to this work, as the ongoing Transformation Agenda is a development plan; by looking at what various authors have written about it as well as mention some of the challenges that have hindered Nigeria from having a successful implementation of its development plans, policies, programmes and reforms that has practically contributed to the challenges of development the country experiences. It would also discuss the rent seeking and rentier state theories which explain the problematic state of the country's involvement in rent-seeking activities especially on oil that has affected Nigeria's development engendered by corruption as well as the resource curse theory which explains the malady resource-abundant economies.
This study would be useful to the government, economists as well as those interested in the development of Nigeria as it would discuss the problems that have for long confronted or hindered Nigeria's development and bring into light the challenges that have affected the oil sector for those interested in such knowledge; especially the problems that have affected Nigeria's oil refineries from performing at full capacity and more importantly the study would evaluate the Transformation Agenda which would inform the audience about the achievements so far as well as the challenges and ultimately proffer solutions which would be useful for the government in successfully attaining a transformation and development of the country. It would also present a view of the performance of Nigeria's economy obtained during the course of the research that would keep the readers informed about the current trend of Nigeria's economy
This research study would be useful for students who are interested in researching in this area that pertain to Nigeria's economy and development as well as inspire scholars in the academics to embark on a further research as regards Nigeria's development, the Transformation Agenda and the possibility of Nigeria attaining a position of being amongst the top twenty economies embedded in the Transformation Agenda.
1.6 SCOPE/ LIMITATION OF STUDY
This study would largely utilize secondary sources of data than primary sources because of environment constraints and some unseen circumstances that arose which served as a constraint to the possibility of utilizing` primary sources of data from adequate locations or organizations. The scope of this study would be limited to a focus on the 4th republic that envisages the challenges of national development, efforts in the 4th Republic to spur development with a focus on Goodluck Jonathan's Transformation Agenda's whilst assessing its achievements and challenges and finally the efforts to diversify Nigeria's economy under the Jonathan's regime.
1.7 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
This research would majorly utilize secondary sources of data such as textbooks, journals, reports and internet sources in sourcing for information relevant to this study.
1.8 CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATION
According to Osisioma (2012), 'Transformation is a strong word that portends a radical, structural and fundamental reappraisal of the basic assumptions that underlie our reforms and developmental efforts.' He submits that as regards the Transformation Agenda, the challenge the government faces is how to 'move the nation away from an oil dominated economy, institute the basics for a private sector driven economy, build the local economy on international best practices, transform a passive oil industry to a more pro-active one and restructure the country along the lines of a more decentralized federalism (Osisioma, 2012).'
Gyong (2013) noted that transformation in a country connotes the structural changes that are apparent in the major institutions of governance as well as in the society at large. He further stated that:
'It should guarantee improved living standard, Per Capital Income, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other basic Socio-economic indicators such as food, shelter, clothing and health for the substantial majority of the citizenry. Thus, on the whole, transformation can be said to be a total package that involves every facet of the individual, organization or society. It is meant to be a vehicle for a better society where virtually everyone will be reasonably comfortable' (Gyong, 2013).
Richards (1950), defines an economy as a system by which a country's money and goods are produced and used, or a country considered this way. To him, the importance of a sound economy cannot be overemphasized. The economy of any country is highly important to the growth and development of that country as well as the wellbeing of its citizens under different touchstones, which is nonetheless dependent on how effective those at the forefront of managing such an economy do so.
Asogwah & Okoli (2008) also posit that the economy of a country is unarguably crucial to the survival of its citizenry and that 'the economy of any country is so highly vital that its strength or weakness could make or mar the edifice.' Nigeria's economy has the potential to become one of the best economies of the world, if the resources at its disposal are properly utilized, harnessed and maximally managed. It has been estimated to be the second largest in Africa and even considered as the most entrepreneurial economy (Asogwah & Okoli, 2008); however, ironically a majority of its resources are underutilized and underexploited to spur development.
Oluwatoyin and Lawal (2011) posit that the concept of development beholds a situation of definitional pluralism; in the sense that it is apparently a concept or word that is difficult to define but nevertheless various scholars have made judicious attempts to define the concept.
Weiss (2011) submits that 'development is best seen as a process of growth, improvement in social indicators and structural economic change.'
According to Rodney (1976) as cited by Olawole (2010), development in human society is a many sided process which could be convenient at both individual and societal level; that implies increased skill and capacity, greater freedom, creativity, self-discipline, responsibility and material well being. Olawole (2010) further stated that there are microeconomic indices are used to measure development which include GDP, GNP, PCI etc. However, Mimiko (1997) as cited by Olawole (2010:42) argues that an increase in the aforementioned microeconomic indices does not amount to development, but rather translates to a transformation in the socio-economic and political lines of the people which consequently results to an upsurge in the standard of living of citizens.
Olawole (2010) envisaged development to be 'the ability of the society to provide for the basic social amenities such as provision of good road network, stable electricity, quality education, functional hospital, security as well as creation of wealth for the citizens , transformation of its own institutions and the attitude of the rules and rulers towards the attainment of these goals.'
According to Shamija (2006:2-3), development connotes 'the collective activities by any human society, irrespective of its size, directed at reducing the totality of both perceived and actual obstacles to a higher standard of living thereby maximizing the quality of life.' He also averred development as human experience that is synonymous with the fulfillment of individual, mental, emotional and physical potentialities.
As postulated by Ikoku (1991) cited by Shamija (2006:3), for any development process to be 'purposeful and sustainable', it must be dictated or marshaled by the base of resources available to a particular society and should strive at optimal maximization of the available natural and human resources in a particular environment at a particular time.
Shamija (2006:3) captured an interesting explanation proffered by Rodney (1972) and Gna (1987) of development where it was viewed as a fundamental transformation of the nation's mode of production so as to bring into being qualitative change in the living conditions of the people and on the other hand, at the level of the individual it connotes an improvement in the skills and capacities of the persons as well as 'greater freedom, creativity, self-discipline, responsibility and material wellbeing.'
National development is affirmed to be a general increase which could be in infrastructure, levels of earnings, savings and investments in productive enterprises, goods and services and their equitable distribution (Shamija, 2006).
Shamija (2006:5) went ahead to present four ways at which the concept of development is used; which he described as economic growth, modernization, distributive justice and socio-economic transformation. According to him:
1. As economic growth, following the past World War II, economic literature have defined development as 'a rapid sustained rise in real output per head and attendant shifts in the technological, economic and demographic characteristics of a society,' which has however been dismissed by a scholar like Maboguje (1980) as cited by Shamija (2006:6) who insisted that development is based on the available technology to the society in the forms of the dependents each individual has to support.
2. As modernization, development is said to be concerned with 'the inculcation of wealth-oriented behavior and values in individuals which represents a shift from a commodity to human approach that apparently aids the population to appreciate and accept new economic growth which in turn fosters or stimulates the provision and expansion of social services and infrastructure as well as the consumption of goods and services imported usually from advanced countries.
3. As a distributive justice, Shamija postulates that development seeks to reduce the rate of poverty of the masses as well as satisfy their basic needs provided by the government to the citizens or masses, how these ones are able to access these goods and services and at what cost they could be acquired.
4. As a socio-economic transformation, it is denoted as the level of social services, facilities, goods and infrastructures which are provided and are available in a given society and the ease with which members have access to them.
According to Nnamani (2009), in strict economic terms, 'development means the capacity of a national economy which has been static for some time to generate and sustain an annual increase in its Gross National Income (GNI) at rates of 5% to 7% or more. He further postulated that development under an economic trajectory is the significant reduction in poverty rate or even elimination of poverty, inequality as well as unemployment within the context of a growing economy and rightly submitted that development is a change, improvement or progress in the living condition of people; an improvement in the political, economic, social and cultural institutions as well as an advancement in the living standards of the people.
From a Marxist perspective as analyzed by Nnamani (2011), development can holistically be seen to involve a positive change in the social amenities of the people where there is an evidence of:
1. A rise in the level of literacy of the people resulting from a compulsory and free education
2. An improvement in the standard of living
3. Quality health care system
4. Economic, political and social change
5. Increase in the structure of consumption of material, social well being as well as goods and services.
6. Technological improvement.
Desai (2002) submits that development does not happen technically by manipulating some investments and savings aggregates but by specific acts of investment which should be channeled towards creating industrial or agricultural employment, transform structures so that more people can have jobs, sarcastically stating that if not such funds 'can be siphoned off to Switzerland.'
Oil is a versatile, flexible, non-productive and depleting natural resource which is a fundamental input into modern economic activity which provides about 50% of the total energy demand in the world, excluding the centrally planned economies of the world (Anyanwu, Oaikhenan, Oyefusi and Dimowo, 1997). Accordingly, Adiele (2009) affirms that petroleum is the main source of energy for development in the world today and as such petroleum products which are derived from oil are strategic resource to any nation It has been found out that oil exporting countries of the developing world depend heavily on oil revenue for foreign exchange earnings and for the government budget in most cases, reaching 90% or above.
According to Davey and Grant (2011), oil is made out of decomposed organic matter that has been trapped and preserved in the earth's crust for millions of years and the passage of time in complement with temperature turns the organic matter into oil. They stated that oil collects in the pores of sedimentary rock where they migrate and accumulate with the shifting of the earth. They went ahead to note some basic facts about oil which is otherwise known as petroleum, which include;
1. petroleum is primarily composed of hydrocarbon molecules which specifically contains 84.87% carbon and 11-14% hydrogen
2. Oil has trace elements of nitrogen, oxygen and sulfur.
3. Petroleum originated from the Greek word 'petra' which means rock and the Latin word 'oleum' which means oil.
4. Crude oil is the substance that comes directly from the ground and if its sulfur content is less than 1%, it is called sweet crude which can actually smell 'fruity' and if the sulfur content surpasses 1%, it is called sour crude which practically smells 'funky'.
5. Light oils are said to be the most valuable in terms of density and are often transparent, extremely liquid and full of gasoline. While heavy oils are dark, thick, full of asphalt and not as valuable as the light oil and its color ranges from transparent to greenish yellow, reddish brown to black (Hyne, 2001 as cited by Davey and Gant, 2011).
6. Oil forms at much deeper level than natural gas between 7,000 and 18,000 which requires temperatures between 1500F and 3000F.
According to Investopedia (2014) an oil refinery is an industrial plant that refines crude oil into petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline and heating oil. Oil refineries essentially serve as the second stage in the production process following the actual extraction by oil rigs and The first step in the refining process is distillation where crude oil is heated at extreme temperatures to separate the different hydrocarbons. It further explains that the crude oil components, once separated via the refining process, can be sold to different industries for a broad range of purposes and that lubricants can be sold to industrial plants immediately after distillation, but other products require more refining before reaching the final user. Major refineries have the capacity to process hundreds of thousand barrels of crude oil a day.
Omotoso (2009) explains an oil refinery which is otherwise called a petroleum refinery as 'an industrial process plant where crude oil is processed and refined into more useful petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, asphalt base, heating oil, kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.
He describes them as typically large industrial complexes that have extensive piping running through out and carrying streams of fluid between large processing units; asserting that they are an essential part of the downstream side of the petroleum industry.
Giving an historical view of refineries, Omotoso (2009) submitted that the first oil refineries were built by Ignacy Lukasiewicz near Jaslo, Austrian empire which is now in Poland from 1854-1856 and that as the Kerosene lamp invented by Lukasiewicz became popular, the refining industry grew in the area. The world's largest refinery complex therein is recorded to be the Jamnegar refinery complex that consists of two refineries that is operated by the Relence Industry Limited in Jamnegar situated in India which has a combined daily production capacity of crude oil at1, 240, 000 bpd.
According to Davey and Gant (2011), oil refining involves a process where the oil is initially boiled into vapor then pumped into a distilling column where it is cooled. As this vapor which contains different kinds of hydrocarbon molecules cools, the molecules separate into different liquids that are captured by various trays in the distilling column. The by-products of this process include produced liquids such as heavy gas oil, light gas oil, kereosene, naptna and straight gasoline.
Eurostat in its perspective of what development indicators connote stated that:
A development indicator is often understood as an easily presented index that represents data on a multi-dimensional concept that is being measured. Indicators are measured for a specific place and time and are typically used to represent, compare and monitor complex development issues such as poverty over time and between countries and regions .Indicators are therefore a key mechanism for measuring progress toward development objectives. To be effective they must communicate useful information - enabling situations to be understood and decisions made. Indicators must be both meaningful - accurately portraying what is happening - and resonant - allowing people to grasp the relevance to their own lives. (Eurostat, 2009)
There are different indices or indicators used to measure development that cuts across different areas. According to Todaro and Smith (2011) there are basic indicators used to determine three facets of development such as include the purchasing power per individual in a country which is measured by the real per capita income; health which is measured by life expectancy, undernourishment and child mortality and finally educational attainments that is measured by literacy and schooling. He noted that in accordance with 'the World Bank's income-based country classification scheme' the gross national income (GNI) per capita, which is 'the total domestic and foreign value added claimed by a country's residents without making deductions for depreciation (or wearing out) of the domestic capital stock', is the most common 'summary index' used in measuring the overall economic activity of the people as well as the relative economic well being of people across different countries of the world; while the gross domestic product (GDP) 'measures the total value for final use of output produced by an economy, by both residents and nonresidents'.
Morse (2007) in his analysis explored various indicators and indices used in measuring development amongst which he laid emphasis on the Human Development Index (HDI), Corruption Perception Index (CPI) and Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI). According to him Human Development Index (HDI) was created by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) which represents the practical picture of their vision of human development as an alternative vision to what they perceive as the dominance of economic indicators in development and because 'economic development had the gross domestic product (GDP) so human development had to have the HDI. In essence the HDI represents a measure of the 'quality of life'' (Morse, 2007). Accordingly, the HDI which appeared since 1990, has three components which include the life expectancy which is 'a proxy indicator for health care and living conditions; adult literacy which is combined with years of schooling or enrollment in primary, secondary and tertiary education and the real GDP per capita which measures the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), 'a proxy indicator for disposable income'
According to Todaro and Smith (2011) the HDI ranks all countries on a scale of 0 which is the lowest rank of human development to 1, the highest human development ranking based on the three 'goals or end products' of development that include longevity, knowledge and standard of living. They stated that by HDI, broad human development s envisaged, not just higher income and that many oil rich countries that get a high income from oil have been said to experience 'growth without development'. They categorically stated in emphasis on their point of the importance of development on the part of individuals in any nation that:
We cannot easily argue that a nation of high-income individuals who are not well educated and suffer from significant health problems that lead to their living much shorter lives than others around the globe has achieved a higher level of development than a low-income country with high life expectancy and wide-spread literacy. A better indicator of development disparities and rankings might be found by including health and education variables in a weighted welfare measure rather than by simply looking at income levels, and the HDI offers one very useful way to do this. (Todaro and Smith, 2011)
Nnamani (2011) in his work was able to categorize the development indicators into categories of economic, political, technological and social indicators. According to him economic indicators of development as underlined by Kuznets (1985) include 'the high rate of growth per capita output, high rate of increase in total factors of production especially labor productivity, high rate of structural transformation of the economy and high propensity to reach out to the rest of the world for markets of their resources' and he posits that development occurs when there is economic maturity that connotes an increase in the national output that supplies the nation with economic goods, noting that economic diversification is a sin qua non for development to take place which spurs productivity in agriculture, industry, quarry and mining.
Political indicators to Nnamani (2011) is a crucial indicator of development where a politically developed country is characterized with a high level of maturity and stability in the process of power acquisition; where the opinion of the people is not neglected but well expressed in the system via referendum, plebiscites or representatives and where there is significant political participation of the people which boosts development.
Under technological indicators, he strongly postulated that there can be no significant development without technological development in the country; which he backed by citing an example of the wide dichotomy between First and Third World countries which is shaped by the asymmetrical gap in technological acquisition, where the former far surpasses the latter; and these technological indicators include the country's acquisition of information/ media technologies, communication, method of production and management systems. As regards the social indicators, he noted that development scholars believe that the high level of social organization and social system is paramount for the development of the country and equally for the development of the individuals (Nnamani, 2011).
Social indicators to him denote social maturity of a country's social development and social mobilization, while social development is the improvement in the social status f the people and the society in general and these social indicators of development include 'satisfactory social justice, improved social amenities like good roads, hospitals, water and electricity, improved and unbiased system of selection, promotion and recruitment in public offices, quality education and social welfare, quality leisure, recreation and past time facilities, a reduced regional, ethnic and tribal disparities and sentiments' (Nnamani, 2011).
According to Wolff (2009), Nigeria as at 2003 was ranked by the Pern World Tables at 4% of the US Real GDP amongst the poorest countries in world. In his work, he disclosed that 'the HDI was developed by the UN and has been computed annually for 177 countries of the world since 1990.' He mentioned that the reason for this measure was in a bid to look beyond the GDP to a broader definition of well being. He opined that the HDI is not a comprehensive measure for human development as it doesn't include indicators for human rights, democracy or inequality, but that its rationale is to 'provide a broader perspective on human progress than GDP or personal income.'
1. Nnamani, L.C (2010): 'Politics of Development and Underdevelopment.' Enugu; John Jacobs Classic Publishers Ltd
2. Adenikinju, A (2010): 'Workable Practices of Oil Dependent Countries'. Journal of Economic Management. Volume7, No. 1, January, 2010.
3. Energymixreports.com-'Of Nigeria's refineries, Proposal sale and failed attempts' posted by editor in downstream.
4. Fasagba, J.Y (2007): 'An Assessment of the Liberalization of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry', Maiduguri Journal of Arts and Social Sciences. 5(1), June 2007.
5. NNPC DIARY, 2001.
6. Sambo, A.S (2011): 'Energy, Environment and Economic Growth' (proceedings of the 2010, NAEC Conference). Ibadan; Book Merit Publishers.
7. Ijiomah, M.I (2002): 'An Anatomy of Development and Retrogression' Enugu; Smartlink Publishers.
8. Buomo, E (2010): 'A Periscope on the Impact of Oil Development on Agricultural Industry in Nigeria', Journal of Economic and Management Studies. 3(1).
9. Ero, Toks (2014): 'Nigeria is 100! And so what'? The Punch, Friday, March 7, 2014).
10. Eneh, O.C (2011): 'Failed Development Vision, Political Leadership and Nigeria's Underdevelopment: A Critique' Asian Journal of Rural Development. Volume 1(1).
11. Adiele, C.J (2009): 'Technology, Development and Productivity: A Holistic Approach'. Atlanta, U.S.A.
12. Adiele, C.J (2009): 'Technology-Development: Are We getting it Right. Re: Petroleum Industry' NIIA Lecture Series, No. 88.
13. Bawa, S and Mohammmed, J.A (2007): Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Central Bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial review. 45 (3), September 2007.
14. Anyanywu, J.C, Oyefusi, A, Oaikhenan,H & Dimowo, F.A (1997): 'The Structure of The Nigerian Economy'. Onitsha: Joanee Educational Publishers.
15. Obasaju, B (2010): 'the Impact of oil growth on the Nigerian economy' (M.sc paper). Unilag, Lagos, Nigeria.
16. Ezekwesili, O (2006): 'Solid Minerals: A strategic Asset for National Development', NIIA Lecture Series, No. 87.
Several assertions have been made about Nigeria operating a mono cultural economy that is especially dependent on crude oil. Suffice it to say that Nigeria truly beholds a situation termed the 'paradox of plenty' where despite being endowed with an abundance of natural resources, it has failed to efficiently utilize and maximize them to generate full benefits that would be benefit the whole country complemented with the challenges of development that is prevalent. Furthermore, it has been noted that Nigeria hasn't scored so well over the years under the trajectory of some indicators that measure development.
Though, there are other sectors in the Nigerian economy that contributes to its revenue, however, the oil sector has remained a predominant sector the country highly relies on for the bulk of its revenue with the agricultural sector also resuming a significant role, especially with the rise of President Jonathan's Administration. Despite the fact the oil sector is a large contributor, it suffers some challenges that threaten its efficient performance that in return affects the economy and more so, overreliance on oil comes along with implications that can jeopardize the country's economy and development. Sadly, the country overtime hasn't succeeded in diversifying its production base and still faces a couple of challenges that affect its development which the current administration seeks to rectify under its Transformation Agenda, that other administrations though had embedded in their strategies, policies and plans failed to properly curtail or implement.
This literature review would therefore discuss the issues or areas that would give weight or throw more light in the research work and thus heralding the subsequent chapter, which is the main focus of this study.
The literature review would discuss the aforementioned under the following sub-headings:
Structure of Nigeria's economy
Performance of Nigeria's economy
The Oil Sector
The Agricultural Sector
Oil Refineries in Nigeria
Problems of Oil Refineries in Nigeria
Challenges of National Development
Development Planning in Nigeria
The Transformation Agenda
Diversification of the Nigerian Economy
2.2 STRUCTURE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
Anyanwu et al (1997) in their work on the structure of Nigeria's economy gave a comprehensive analysis of the Nigeria's economy structure. He presented a weighty definition of the structure of an economy where he said:
It involves those underlying characteristics of an economy which constitute the economy's patterns status, and composition/components/sectors and which affect or determine its behavior and performance. Thus, the salient dimensions of the structure of an economy pertain to the totality of the complex relationships existing between and among the resources of the economy and the outputs that emanate from such resources over a specified period of time (Anyanwu, Oaikhenan, Oyefusi and Dimowo, 1998).
According to Adedipe (2008), by the time Nigeria became politically independent in October 1960, agriculture was the dominant sector of the economy, contributing about 70% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employing about the same percentage of the working population, and accounting for about 90% of foreign earnings and Federal Government revenue. He further
stated that the early period of post-independence up until mid-1970s saw a rapid growth of industrial capacity and output, as the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP rose from 4.8% to 8.2%, of which the pattern obviously changed 'when oil suddenly became of strategic importance to the world economy through its supply-price nexus.'
However, though other sectors such as the mining and textile industry were practically active, the agriculture sector which was centered on had highly benefitted the economy. Anyanwu et al (1997) posited that the role of agriculture in transforming both the social and economic framework of an economy can't be overemphasized. During the colonial times the agricultural sector encompassed the engagement of peasant farmers in the production of more cash crops for sale to be eventually exported to Western Europe, where various Nigerian communities had actively engaged in the production of diverse food and cash crops (Anyanwu et al, 1997). Some of the food and cash crops that were cultivated then includes respectively, yam, cocoa yam, cassava (which was grown mostly in the South) as well as oil palm which came from the East, vast production of cocoa from the West, Cotton and Groundnuts from the North and Nigeria was said to have been actively involved in the exportation of these agricultural products which had initially contributed about 57% of Nigeria's GDP in 1929 where oil palm had accounted for about 85-70% of the total exports during the same period (Anyanwu et al, 1997). Worrisomely, since independence, the role of agriculture has declined in its contribution to the GDP with a major instigating factor being the discovery of crude oil as well as the poor performance of the deteriorating performance of the sector itself, whereas observed by Anyanwu et al (1997) its share of the GDP fell from 61.50% in 1963/64 to 14.63% in 1983.
According to Olayinka (2009), agriculture was the mainstay of the Nigerian economy in the 60's and early 70's. However, the structure changed sharply from the 80's as oil rose in significance from it formerly 29% contribution to GDP in 1980 to 52% in 2005. Oil and gas accordingly had contributed about 99% of exports and about 85% of government revenues but with very low labor absorptive capacity of less than 5%. He noted that agriculture that had accounted for over 50% of GDP in 1960 declined in importance from 48% in 1970 to 20.6% in 1980 and accounted for just 23.3% of GDP in 2005 (CBN 2007, World Bank/DFID 2006 as cited by Olayinka, 2009); apart from which its pattern of production had equally changed. In his work, he mentioned that the manufacturing subsector's contribution to the GDP hasn't witnessed significant improvement over the years; rather its share in GDP fell from 8.4% in 1980 to 5.5% in 1999 and 4.6% in 2005. He further identified some worrisome features of the subsector to include low investment, high unused capacity and low value added amongst others.
The African Development Bank Group in the Country's Strategy Paper for 2013-2017 presented a recent structure of the Nigerian economy. According to them, Nigeria has a population of about 167 million people and a land area of 923,768 km2 and is the largest economy in West Africa as well as the second largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. In a bid to better measure the size of its economy, Nigeria has attempted re-basing its GDP data from 1990 to 2008. African Development Bank Group (2013) reports that a 'preliminary forecast of the rebasing is about a 40% increase in the total GDP; i.e. from a 2012 IMF estimate of USD 270 billion to USD 375 billion.' This they said would bring Nigeria's GDP just behind South Africa's GDP of USD 390 billion, making Nigeria the 30th largest economy in the world from the current 40th position. The structure of the Nigerian economy is predominantly primary product oriented with its core areas being agriculture and crude-oil production which contributes a larger part of the country's GDP.
In an analysis of the structure of Nigeria's economy the National Planning Commission (2011) stated that even after Nigeria had attained fifty years of political independence, the productive base of the economy persists to be 'weak, narrow and externally-oriented with primary production activities of agriculture and mining and quarrying (including crude oil and gas) accounting for about 65 percent of the real gross output and over 80 percent of government revenues.' It was noted that primary production activities account for about 90 percent of foreign exchange earnings and 75 percent of employment, while secondary activities on the contrary which encompasses manufacturing, building and construction that inherently have greater potential for enlarging the productive base of the economy, generating foreign exchange earnings as well as contribute sustainably to the government revenues account for just a paltry 4.14% and 2.0% of gross output respectively. Services or tertiary activities on the other hand which is said to be dependent on the means generated by the productive sectors to carry out their operations comprise about 30 percent of gross output. However, the service sector has significantly been recorded to have expanded their influence in the economy over the last decade accounting for over 35 percent of the growth of the real gross domestic product (National Planning Commission, 2011).
While the telecommunications sector was observed by the NPC (2011) to have experienced growth and an upsurge in its contribution to the real gross domestic product sustainably since 2005, which significantly contributed to the changes in the output of the structure of Nigeria's economy since 2005, the oil sector on the contrary was noted to have declined. The oil and gas sector was noticed to have shrunk in importance between 2006 and 2010, consequent to its decline in the share of GDP which dropped from about 25% in 2005 to about 16% in 2010. The sector's contribution to GDP growth was affirmed to be disappointingly negative between 2005 and 2009 as a result of the average annual real growth rate of -3 percent it had recorded; but nevertheless sprang up to a positive contribution 'when normalcy returned to the Niger Delta region (NPC, 2011).
The manufacturing sector hasn't recorded a heightened level of significant contribution to Nigeria's economy, which is a poor record for the country. The manufacturing sector role in the economy was observed to have been decidedly small in terms of its share of gross output, contribution to growth, foreign exchange earnings, government revenues and employment generation in the country (NPC, 2011). In another development, the sector's contribution to real GDP growth which declined from over 5% in 2005 to about 3.96% in 2009 was reported to have edged up to 4.14 % in 2010. Accordingly, the NPC (2011) views the dreary or lackluster performance of the manufacturing sector to be a reflection of the appalling state of infrastructure as well as other a collection of other factors or constraints that inhibit the sector's growth. It stated that:
'The miniscule manufacturing sector share of GDP reflects the abysmal performance of the sector over several years constrained by pervasive growth- inhibiting factors not least, the appalling state of physical infrastructure. Other constraints include high cost of funds to meet working capital requirements, heavy reliance on the external sector for raw materials and other intermediate inputs, hostile business environment characterized by multiplicity of taxes and levies, widespread application of obsolete technology and machinery especially in sectors like textiles, etc. These operating conditions undermined capacity utilization as average capacity utilization rates stagnated 53.52% in 2009 and 54.67% in 2008. Meanwhile, the index of industrial production declined. The net effect of all these was high mortality rates of industries' (NPC, 2011).
According to Ogwu (2006) The Nigerian mining and quarrying sector had formerly specialized in the exploration of solid and liquid minerals. Aside from oil, other minerals that were produced in this sub-sector include limestone, coal, cassiterite or tin ore, marble, columbite and natural gas. These minerals varied in their total production output, while some like coal, marble and limestone where highly produced and utilized, others such as columbite, tin ore and even the natural gas have been underutilized, which are capable of contributing impressively to the nation's revenue if well maximized. Ogwu (2006) lamented in the NIIA Founder's Day Lecture that 'Unfortunately most of these minerals have remained unexploited, while many of them have been haphazardly exploited by unlicensed miners.'
2.3 PERFORMANCE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
In Ijiomah's (2002) work on 'An Anatomy of Development and Retrogression, in an effort to analyze Nigeria's post independent economy, he argued that the impact of colonialism in pre-independent Nigeria had influenced the performance of the Nigerian economy in the post independent era with a view that 'the consolidation of the colonial system involving the entrenchment of a peripheral capitalist social formation provided the prelude to independence which is regarded as nominal.' He further posited that the strong influence and distasting character of colonialism on Nigeria's economy is enough reason to appropriate that the colonial period contributed to the subsequent under performance of Nigeria's economy and ineffective maximization of its potential and also whereby after the country's independence, they still interfere manipulatively in the country's affairs drawing from his allegory that 'an external head continues to wag its internal tail'.
Over the years, especially following the rigorous oil exploration and exportation activities the Nigerian economy had drifted towards focusing on for its national revenue marshaled by the over-ambitious government and instigated by the oil boom, the performance of other sectors began to decline. For example in the manufacturing subsector, as noted by Anyanwu et al (1997), the growth rate of manufacturing rose from 23.6%n in 1965 to 77% in 1975 but fell drastically to 6.6% in 1980. The value-added and employment status in these manufacturing plants had risen impressively between 1963 and 1980, but also fell in 1985 from its standing at N 2,605.24 million of value-added level and 453,600 employees in 1980 to N 1,230.31 million and 351,200 employees (Adejugbe, 1995 as cited in Anyanwu et al,1997:38) .
According to Ogwu (2006), the Nigerian mining and quarrying sector had formerly specialized in the exploration of solid and liquid minerals. He also stated that aside from oil, other minerals that were produced in this sub-sector included limestone, coal, cassiterite or tin ore, marble, columbite and natural gas. He further stated that these minerals varied in their total production output, while some like coal, marble and limestone where highly produced and utilized, others such as columbite, tin ore and even the natural gas have been underutilized, which are capable of contributing impressively to the nation's revenue if well maximized. Ogwu (2006) lamented in the NIIA Founder's Day Lecture that 'Unfortunately most of these minerals have remained unexploited, while many of them have been haphazardly exploited by unlicensed miners.'
A.H Ekpo & O.J Umoh (2013) studied Nigeria's economic growth and development and found that Nigeria had experienced a truncated economic history and presented the respective GDP of the economy at different intervals or period respectively. According to them, between 1960-1970's there was a recorded annual GDP growth of 3.1%; between 1970-1978 during the oil boom era, the GDP had grown annually by 6.2%; but in the 1980's the GDP had negative growth rates, where between the interval of 1980-1988, the industry and manufacturing sectors declined negatively 3.2% and -2.3% respectively. The growth of agriculture for the periods of 1960-1970 and 1970-78 was unsatisfactory where in the early 1960's, the agriculture sector suffered from low commodity prices while the oil boom contributed to the negative growth of agriculture in the 1970's, luring the labor away from the rural sector to the urban centers.
Having x-rayed the Nigerian economy, Olayinka (2009) affirmed that though the challenges facing the Nigeria in the 21st century are huge, Nigeria's position today is different from what it was in the past two decades.
He asserted that Nigeria's economy has witnessed a much welcome economic progress and that there has been noticeable improvement in the macroeconomic indicators such as growth rates, fiscal balance, external reserves, inflation and exchange rates amongst others. He mentioned that despite the positive development in the economy for the past six years and the government's aspiration to make the country the 20th largest economy by 2020, there is an imperative need to identify key issues in Nigeria's development.
Olayinka (2010) also observed that Nigeria has a high duality structure and high level of informality as a significant feature of its economy; where the country's economy is structured into two broad sectors which are the oil and non-oil sectors. He stated that while the oil sector is characterized with high level of productivity and competitiveness, modern production technology and high per capita income of about $4000, it's however 'externally focused and has high linkages to the rest of the economy and this contributes meagerly to the growth rate in the country. While the non-oil sector on the hand is characterized by low productivity, low competiveness, limited technological advancement, low average per capita income of less than $400.
In another development, Oyeyemi (2013) reports that the Nigerian economy is so dependent on oil that 85% and 95% of the total government revenue and export revenue come from oil. He found out that when there is a fall in the price of crude oil, it consequently leads to 'destabilization effects in the balance of payment position and gomvernment finances.' Thus, he is of the view that the non-oil sector persisted in contributing less significantly due to the predominance of the oil sector and consequently, a little shock in the price of crude oil in the global oil market will produce a long term effect on economic growth in Nigeria. To him, oil continues to be the dominant source of government revenue for financing the annual budget. Total amount collected during 2009 was N2, 776.74 billion as against budget estimate of N3, 114.42 billion for the year. The budget estimate of crude production of 2.292 million barrels per day could not be realized due to persistent shut-down of float stations as a result of unrest occasioned by militant activities in the Niger Delta area.
According to a report from the Newswatch Magazine (February, 2014), the Nigeria's Customs Service (NCS) is the second income earner of the nation economy after the NNPC which superintends over the nation's oil incomes. Unfortunately however, it acclaims that the aforementioned parastatals are reputed for inefficiency and corruption and efforts of the Minister of Finance, Ngozi Nkonjo Iweala to sanitize the NCS had 'always hit the rocks as [powerful cabals in the system frustrated these.'
Jonathan currently bellowed against the allegation or proposition by the World Bank that Nigeria is amongst the 5 poorest countries in the World (The Guardian Newspaper, May 2, 2014). Accordingly, in dispute of the proposition of Nigeria's poverty ranking in the world as being amongst the 5 poorest countries, the President declared that 'Nigeria is not a poor country and the GDP of Nigeria is over half a trillion dollars and the economy is growing at close to 7%' (Guardian Newspaper, May 2, 2014). He explained that Nigeria's problem isn't poverty, but the redistribution of its wealth and that the wealth of Nigeria is probably concentrated in the hands of few people, while many do not have access to it.
It has been reported that despite the robust growth of the GDP, unemployment has persisted as a challenge in the country, where the employment rate was observed to have increased from 21.1% in 2010 to 23.9% and 27.4% in 2011 and 2012 respectively (Mid Term report of The Transformation Agenda, 2012-2013), which shows growth without development as some scholars aver. This accordingly was disclosed to be as a result of the phenomenal growth in the number of active population.
According to the Ministry of Information and Communication (2012) , the oil and gas sub-sector still thrives as the major driver of the economy as it accounts for over 95% of export earnings and 85% of government revenues within 2011-2012, while the agriculture sector which is also a significant part of the productive sector is considered as a dominant contributor to the GDP of the country which measured up to 40% between 2011-2012 and currently employs about two thirds of the entire labor force as well as sustaining its position as the highest contributor to non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) contributing to 47.17% and 45.49% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.
2.4 CHALLENGES OF NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Different works or literatures have been written as regards the issues of development challenges in Nigeria. No doubt Nigeria's economy has been declared as one of the fastest growing economies in West Africa and even the largest in Africa at large after the rebasing exercise result was announced in April 2014 (Wikipedia, 2014) which drastically accelerated its GDP, but nevertheless its economic growth hasn't been well complemented with an anticipated corresponding increase in national development; which is determined by different factors. Different factors have been analyzed and posited to be responsible for the problems or factors inhibiting national development in the country.
Though Nigeria has been considered to be a wealthy nation, this hasn't told or shown well on a majority of its citizens, as a lot of people have been affirmed to be living below the poverty line. According to Okonjo-Inweala (2003), about 70% of Nigeria's masses live in absolute poverty on a dollar per day or less and it is estimated that it will require an annual GDP growth rate in the order of 78% in order to have the number of people in poverty halved by 2015.
Though, agriculture has been considered important in the national development of developing countries as attested to by Omowale and Rogrigues (1979), nonetheless, in the case of Nigeria the agriculture dais or potentiality of the nation has not been properly harnessed to adequately meet the consumption needs of the teeming populace especially since the exploitation of the oil resource. In the same vein, oil has been a significant source of revenue that has impressively contributed to the nation's national reserve, but nevertheless it has been argued to have stirred up the hydra-headed monster of corruption in the country which has been pervasive and that has indisputably debarred progressive national development in the country's terrace. Therefore, one can't but wonder if oil is a blessing or curse to a nation like Nigeria. Ogwu (2006) bluntly stated that 'the discovery of crude oil in the Niger Delta in the second half of the fifties and its exploitation for export to earn foreign exchange soon led to a gradual abandonment of both the solid minerals and the agricultural sectors, especially in the seventies so much that by the eighties, Nigeria had become a mono-product economy depending more on crude oil exports for more than 90% of her foreign exchange earnings.'
Official corruption has been analyzed to be one of the major problems that has hindered Nigeria from experiencing true national development. Corruption is like a hydra-headed monster or cankerworm that has eaten deep into the roots of Nigeria's political system which has affected different aspects of Nigeria's development. According to the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) Nigeria was rated on an average of 1.42 between 1996 and 2004 and was rated the most corrupt country in 1998 with an index of 9.7% (Bawa and Mohmmed, 2007: 72). Huge largesse of revenue that ought to be used in developing different sectors of the economy have been siphoned, mismanaged and embezzled impulsively by corrupt politicians and cabals or elites in the country who are closely affiliated. Corruption is common in almost all fabrics of the Nigerin system, which has dented the image of the nation. Several Nigeria leaders have been fond to have looted money deposited in private accounts abroad. Just like Bawa and Mohammed (2007) studied that former military Head of State, late General Sani Abacha had looted '$8 billion of Nigeria's funds into fictitious accounts in European, Asian, American, Caribbean and Arab countries which several attempts has been made by government officials to recover'. The duo referred to this as a 'predatory gladational tendency' which has repercussive effects on Nigeria's development. Accordingly, they further submitted that the embezzlement or divergence of allocated funds by these public office holders comes with some repercussive effects such as the 'pauperization of the masses with physical manifestation of poor road network, epileptic power supply, general infrastructural decay and poor standard of living.'
Olawole (2010) posited in his work that Nigeria was crippled from the beginning by the nature of its colonial creation and integration into the global economy and has remained crippled by corrupt and authoritarian regime; inability to overcome its division and the inability to determine its destiny in the face of a hegemonic world order and its failure to realize its potential.
Dangana (2011) in his work dispassionately asked the question on why Nigeria as the 7th largest producer and exporter of crude oil in the globe should 'manifest such crude amount and form of underdevelopment'?
Soludo (2006) identified Nigeria's wealth to be based on its natural resources and not much on produced or intangible wealth as well as being one of the lowest in Africa on a per capita basis according to estimations by the World Bank. Intangible capital, following Soludo's explanation is defined as human and social capital and institutions; where Nigeria rates poorly. Accordingly, in cases of countries like Mauritius, South Africa and Ghana where the intangible wealth makes up apparently 80% of their national wealth, Nigeria on the contrary has its intangible wealth making a negative 71% contribution and such negative contribution of the intangible wealth means that investment is inefficient which consequently means that Nigeria is depleting and consuming its natural resources without savings and proper investment to 'produce capacities in the future' (Soludo, 2006).
Shamija (2006:41) captured brain drain as a serious impediment to the realization of the aspiration of developing countries like Nigeria in science and technology. He stated that due to the poor equipments of universities and polytechnics, advanced countries have attracted thousands who flee from their developing countries to these more developed countries where these ones end up offering their genius skills and abilities to the further improvement of the developed world.
According to Akpan (2010) in or as edited by ( Terhemba Wuam and Talla Ngorka Sunday) in 'Governance and economic development in the 4th Republic', for a long time since Nigeria's independence, challenges of national development has been accorded in areas such as poor infrastructure, energy, roads, railways, communication, poor planning and policy implementation etc. He further noted that 'a functional infrastructural base of a nation is the backbone or economic axis on which a nation's economy operates.'
According to Krabacher (2011), mismanagement of national revenue has persisted as one of the problems inhibiting proper national development in the country. During the times when Nigerian experienced an oil boom that ought to have raised the chances of true development in the country, the country was noted for wasteful spending of its revenues mostly on projects that didn't yield innovative returns. Krabacher particularly observed that the revenue began to drastically fall when the government under the administration of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) expended the nation's revenue on huge projects with the construction of the FCT being a notable example.
In view of the deplorable state of development in Nigeria, Toks Ero in The Punch Newspaper, 2014) stated analytically that:
Nigeria is yet to transit from company of countries referred to as underdeveloped because over these 100 years, Nigeria continues to fall in all indices for measuring development-a case point is the Human Development Index Report published annually by the U.N, which describes living standards and conditions as still abysmally as Nigerians still live below one dollar per day with life expectancy rtes between 40 to 45 years. Our health care infrastructure is still primitive and stagnant with each succeeding government either paying lip service to improve it. Over the past 100 years, our infrastructure deficit is better imagined. Road networks have collapsed despite huge resources expended or budgeted by succeeding governments under different programmes to make our roads passable. It is horrifying and unimaginable how much man-hours and human lives are lost on death traps we call roads annually. Unfortunately, the numbers of households that own automobiles seem to have grown over the years, yet the quality of road infrastructure is detestable. Our education sector over the last hundred years has gone worse as manifested in the production of half-baked graduates, disenchanted lecturers who teach with outdated curriculum and in dilapidated infrastructure resulting in universities that churn out large numbers of graduates unfit for today's work place while the government officials have all their children in schools abroad, even as close as Ghana, which represents a huge source of foreign exchange earnings for colleges and universities in Europe, America, Asia and even Ghana a West African neighbor. The Malaise that has seen Nigeria go down the slope in the last hundred years is hydra headed and can be traced to inept leadership and corruption. In the last hundred years, all we have seen are leaders whose sole agenda is self-aggrandizement and looting of the nation's treasury with impunity while mouthing service to the people.
He further argued that corruption is evident in virtually all aspects of the government in the country and that corruption has become so endemic that successive governments have all failed to find a permanent cure to the cankerworm and shamefully, several countries Nigeria started the race to development with like United Arab Emirates (UAE), Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brazil etc. have left us behind a long time ago.
The situation is critical in the country, especially in terms of socio-economic development where Eneh (2011) lamented that more than 95% of Nigerians re traumatized and dying of serious impoverishment and hunger, while the 5% privileged few of the huge populace have by 'fair or foul means cornered and monopolized Nigeria's economic, political, health and socio-cultural wealth.'
Development challenges in Nigeria ranges from low HDI, corruption, inadequate or poor infrastructure such as deteriorated federal roads where Eneh (2011) stated that according to an estimate from World Bank that it costs more to send goods from Lagos to Maiduguri than to send them to Europe as well as deteriorated state of the road causing in the fatalities or mishaps that have occurred on these roads; power sector crisis, unemployment that has engendered other negative events or phenomenon, illiteracy, child labor, food insecurity or poor nutrition, poverty, high social vices or crimes, insurgency, political crisis, low life expectancy, low standards of living, pseudo democracy, brain drain, low technology development, non diversified economy springing from an over reliant one.
Osisioma (2012) sadly submitted that despite fifty years of reforms, Nigeria is characterized with the following:
i) A public-sector led economy with a bloated government presence in every facet of national life;
ii) A nation with very weak private sector which has grown a 'rent-seeking and unproductive culture of over-dependence on government patronage and contracts, with little or no value added' (Harneit-Sievers, 2004);
iii) A mono-crop economy with preponderant influence of one commodity in the nation's revenue- expenditure profile and the balance of payment position;
iv) An extractive and primary economy that produced unrefined raw materials for export, either in the form
of agricultural products or crude oil. Manufacturing was at a very rudimentary stage, and industrialization
remained an inconsequential factor in the nation's economic equation;
v) A nation without an effective industrial infrastructure for economic take-off - no petro-chemical industry to fuel the industrialization process, no effective iron and steel complex to produce flat steel, a deficient power and energy sector, insecure and inhospitable environment, and poor communications;
vi) An economy with a weak and tottering national currency that was the whipping boy of the international financial community (Osisioma, 2012).
Jinuh Okon in the Vanguard Newspaper (May 2, 2014) stated that the pathetic nature of the country's power infrastructure serves as a hindrance to economic development in the country and that for Nigeria to mount up to the level of South Africa's power generation, 50, 000 megawatts needs to be added to the present generation of power which is currently at 4, 000 megawatts.
A country that seeks to experience development must necessarily take into cognizance effective planning just as some scholars have postulated. Abe and Lawal (2011) in their analysis found out that most of Nigeria's development plans and strategies had turned out to be futile in achieving a successful implementation and questioned whether the inability of the country to experience meaningful development can be attributed to the implementation failure of these past previous plans and development. They went ahead in their study to give reasons why these plans and strategies have failed to be properly implemented which has hitherto contributed to the inability of the country to experience true development. Some of the reasons they outlined include;
1. Lack of executive capacity responsible for the formulation and implementation of the plans; where there are only officials entrusted with these positions without authentic executive authority.
2. Failure to consult the general public which resulted in the failure of some of these national development plans, especially the local governments who are supposedly closer are being left out too. They further explained that planning ought to generously involve every part of the population, even to those in a low social class such as peasants in the villages and that 'planning is not an edifice where technocrats alone operate' (Mimiko, 1998 as cited by Lawal and Abe, 2011).
2.5 THE CAPACITY OF OIL REFINERIES AND REFINING IN NIGERIA
DoubleGist (2013) in an analysis of the history of oil refining in Nigeria stated that the activities of oil refining in the country could have originated from the small clause inserted in the oil prospecting and mining license which was granted by the Federal Government of Nigeria to one of the prominent international oil companies Shell-BP in 1954 to the effect that as soon as production of oil hit an amount of 500,000 barrels per day, an oil refinery be built in Nigeria. The clause accordingly led to the eventual commissioning of Nigerians Premier Refinery located at Alesa ' Eleme, near Port Harcourt in 1965, with a recorded initial capacity of 35,000 barrels per stream day (bpsd) which later increased to 60,000 bpsd, in 1972. The refinery which was initially called Nigerian Petroleum Refining Company (NPRC) was formerly under the joint ownership of Shell British Petroleum and the Federal Government of Nigeria which subsequently came under the full control of NNPC in 1984 as a result of a 'formal dissolution and assets ' transfer exercise.'
In an analysis of the oil refinery, NPC (2011) noted that the output growth for the oil refinery sector in Nigeria registered 6.95% in 2009 down from 10.48 percent growth rate recorded in 2008 respective and that the resumption of production by the Kaduna Refinery and Petrochemical Company (KRPC) after three years of shutdown enhanced activities in the oil refinery sector in 2008, but growth slowed in 2009 as there were little efforts to expand and boost production. More recently, it has been observed that the government had revoked oil refining licenses issued some years ago due to non-utilization by the recipients; meanwhile, the refining capacity of the country remains inadequate to satisfy local demand hence reliance on imported refined petroleum products persisted in 2009 (NPC, 2011).
Nwaozuzu (2013) x-rayed the state of oil refineries in Nigeria in light to the efforts of the Transformation Agenda, where he expressed delight about the governments' plan to privatize the national refineries and petrochemical plants which according to him, industries had been clamoring for, for a long time now. However, he revealed that the Nigeria's three refineries are over-aged and new ones are yet to be constructed and that the newest refinery in Nigeria which is that of the new Port Harcourt refinery was even commissioned in 1989, approximately 24 years ago. Accordingly, he stressed that all the national refineries in the country have been operating inefficiently for the past 15-20 years and that the average capacity utilization of these refineries defectively is in the range of 18 -25%, 'thereby placing our national refineries at the bottom of the ladder among African refineries.'
According to Nwaozuzu (2013), the age of the refineries is not wholly attributed to the cause of low capacity utilization, but such cases of poor performance of these national refineries 'may be attributed to factors such as wrong business model, inadequate governance structure, poor maintenance/rehabilitation regime, supply chain constraints, etc.' To him the most critical of these factors is the structure of the business model and this is why the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), a monopoly organization has several subsidiaries; where the relationship between these is sometimes unclear and awkward.
In further identifying some bottlenecks associated with the hindrance of the efficient and effective operation of national oil refineries in the country, Nwaozuzu (2013) mentioned that what makes matters worse is the manner at which repairs and maintenance budgets are approved along a trajectory of 'a 'complex chain of command' which commences from the Federal Executive Council level to NNPC board, and then goes further down the 'food chain', which therefore makes the refinery managers to practically have no control whatsoever over their businesses and makes them wholly dependent on PPMC for their survival. He stressed that 'any negligence or sabotage of PPMC pipeline operations has an immediate and direct impact on the efficiency and performance of the refineries. The foregoing provides the logic behind calls for privatization of NNPC refineries.' He comprehensively suggested in furtherance of the privatization of these national refineries that:
In privatizing these refineries the next step would be to call in the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) and reputable consultants to assist in defining the guidelines for privatization. It has been suggested that some critical ideas be incorporated into a privatization programme for the refineries to ensure the protection of vital national interests and guarantee efficiency and sustainability. First, government will have to divest majority shareholding (at least 51%) to the private sector within the framework of existing legislation. Private investors must include a core foreign investor with background and experience in petroleum refining, requisite technical and financial capability, and vision and commitment. As soon as normal operations are resumed, government will be expected to off-load bulk of its percentage holding to industry stakeholders and the general public and retain a small percentage (golden shares) for the national oil company. The core foreign investor will assume the role of operatorship. The refineries should be free to source their crude feedstock and sell to multiple off- takers. Incentives should be provided to attract the right caliber of investors e.g. tax holidays, import duty and VAT exemption, etc. Meantime, only short-term basic repairs should be carried out to enable the refineries sustain reasonable operations and keep their employees engaged until the privatization exercise is completed (Nwaozuzu, 2013).
Omotosho (2009) gave an account of oil refineries in Nigeria where he captured that the downstream industry in Nigeria has been well established with four refineries by the NNPC where two reside in Port-Harcourt and one in Kaduna as well as Warri. These refineries accordingly have a combined capacity of 445,000 bpd. The two located in Port-Harcourt are at Alesa Elema and have a jetty for product export and import. The installed capacity of the Port-Harcourt refinery complex is put at 210,000 bpd, while that of Kaduna is 110,000 bpd. He mentioned that the Kaduna refinery complex (KPRC) produces linear alkyl benzene, heavy alkylale and deparafinated kerosene; while the Warri refinery has a propylene plant with a 35, 600 metric ton per annum (mtpa) capacity as well as an 18,000 mtpa carbon black plant.
Despite the negative comments and reports as regards refining in Nigeria, there have nevertheless been current reports as to the improvement of Nigeria's oil refining capacity which is a stepping stone to the country's self-dependence on oil refining/ production. Michael Eboh wrote in the Vanguard Newspaper (May 2, 2013) that as announced by the NNPC, there is an improvement in the refining capacity of Nigeria's oil, where it was declared that 'domestic refining of Premium Motor Spirits (PMS) at the country's three refineries has increased to 23 million liters per day.' Accordingly, the NNPC as revealed by Michael Eboh, the Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company is currently at an installed capacity of 65%, while the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company is producing at 63% and ultimately, the Port Harcourt Refining and Petrochemical Company is impressively producing at an installed capacity of 66%. Unlike before, he noted according to Engineer Anthony Ogbuigue, the Group Executive Director of Refining and Petrochemicals that 'the scheduled turn around maintenance for the refineries are on course and already the Port Harcourt Refinery has taken delivery of some of the components for its rehabilitation (Vanguard Newspaper, May 2 2013).'
Badmus et al (2012) captured the problems envisaged in the Nigerian oil refineries where he stated that many existing refineries in the country run at low-capacity utilization. They observed that 'the government owned refineries have hardly operated above 40% capacity utilization rate for any extended period of time in the past two decades' as well as noting that the act of improper implemented maintenance of these so called Nigerian oil refineries has resulted in frequent breakdowns of facilities which has thereby resulted in 'high levels of product imports to meet domestic demand.' Accordingly, they stated that the inability of the NNPC refineries to meet the local demand for petroleum products especially the premium motor spirit (PMS) in the country, has translated to a heavy reliance of the Federal government of Nigeria on the importation of crude oil to meet local demands and that despite the importation of this crude oil to supplement local production in the country, the local consumption of petroleum products in the country is evidently low, where these refineries are currently unable to meet the local or domestic demand of 300,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd). (Badmus et al, 2012).
It has also been observed that the refinery capacity of the country is 445,000 bpd, making her theoretically self-sufficient in domestic oil consumption, however, the gap between refinery capacity and refinery output is a reflection of the poor state of domestic refineries which has been a major contributor to the fuel crisis (Badmus et al, 2012). Badmus et al (2012) also found out in his study that the actual energy demand per year for processing crude oil into refined products 'exceeded in varying degrees the stipulated refinery standard of 4 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per 100 (BOE) and that the complexity level of refinery which means 'the depth of crude oil processing', accelerates when the range of products and number of secondary units is enlarged. They further discovered that the level of energy required in an oil refinery experienced an upsurge by the level of complexity and which is expressed 'as either the share of energy consumption in total quantity of crude oil processed or as specific energy consumption per tonne of processed crude oil or per tonne of generated refinery products' and consequently submitting that the level of energy requirement is increased by the level of complexity and that oil refineries with the same level of complexity can have 'a low and high level of energy efficiency.'
Turn Around Maintenance and Problems in Nigerian State-Owned Refineries
Okafor (2007) in his study as cited by Badmus et al (2012) disclosed that the failure of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) management to actualize effective and regular turnaround maintenance (TAM) on the various plants to prevent a breakdown and sustain high capacity utilization has been the major problem facing the refineries.
It was noted in a study (Badmus et al, 2012) that turnaround maintenance (TAM) overhaul of the refineries is recommended to be carried out within the interval of every 18 to 24 months. Odigue et al (2012) as cited by Badmus et al (2012: 50) mentioned the quality of water used for the boilers in these refineries contribute to the failure of these boilers in the Nigerian refineries; categorically stating that 'low water quality used in boilers is observed to have led to frequent failure of the boilers as a result of tube rupture. The poor performance of the boiler feed treatment plant is attributable to the deplorable condition of water intake plant, raw water treatment, demineralization plant, change in raw water quality and non-functioning of the polisher unit.'
The poor nature of maintenance of Nigeria's state-owned refineries have led to a drastic decline in the production level of these refineries to '15% of the total installed capacity in 2004' and that the closure of the Kaduna refinery and Warri refinery as at that time to allow for a turnaround maintenance (TAM) contributed the decrease in production (Badmus et al, 2012, Aigbedon & Iyayi , 2007 as cited by Baadmus et al, 2012).
They further noted that the capacity of Nigeria's refineries is currently incapable of meeting local demand which has forced the country to import petroleum products and also, the state-held refineries which have a 'combined nameplate capacity' or installed capacity of 438, 750 bbl/d, has been able to only produce 214, 000 bbl/d as a result of problems such as sabotage, fire, poor management as well as a lack of regular maintenance (Badmus et al, 2012).
Badmus et al (2012) also stated that most researchers unanimously believe there is a general decline in the level of technical efficiency as regards the level at which these Nigerian state-owned refineries operate and further postulated that 'inadequate system maintenance' as well as technological obsolescence' naturally would lead to the general plummeting of the technical efficiency of a system and consequently, the poor and irregular turnaround maintenance including 'outmoded practices' are probably the reasons of the general decline in the technical efficiency of these state-owned refineries, which is why some social science scholars have beckoned a call for the emergency repairs of Nigeria's oil refineries.
2.6 THE NIGERIAN OIL SECTOR
As asserted by Nwaozuzu (2014), it is a known fact that Nigeria presently operates largely a mono-product economy, and it is expected that further developments in the oil and gas sector as well as its transformation of the sector will lead to a realization of the diversification of the Nigerian economy into agriculture, information and telecommunications technology, aggressive manufacturing activities, etc.
Akinlo (2012) in his analysis described the Nigerian oil sector where he stated that:
'Nigeria is a natural resource abundant country. In particular, over the past fifty years, the country's oil subsector
has grown phenomenally. Both production and exports have increased enormously since commercial production
in 1958. For example, crude oil production increased from 395.7 million barrels in 1970 to 776.01 million
barrels in 1998. The Figure increased to 919.3 million barrels in 2006. The Figure however decreased to 777.5
million barrels in 2009. In the same way, crude oil exports increased from 139.5 million barrels in 1966 to 807.7
million barrels in 1979. The volume of crude oil exports dropped to 390.5 million barrels in 1987 but increased
to 675.3 million barrels in 1998. The trend continued for most years after 2000. In the same way, oil revenue
increased from N166.6 million in 1970 to N 1,591,675.00 million and N6, 530,430.00 million in 2000 and 2008
respectively,' (Akinlo, 2012).
Despite the Nigerian oil sector is relied on largely for its production of crude oil that is exported which contributes to the government's revenue and foreign reserves, the sector has suffered several bottlenecks and struggling to survive following its lack of proper maintenance of its refineries and low capacity development blamed on the lackadaisical attitude of the government. However, the current President's administration is acclaimed to be making ongoing attempts to reform the sector. The oil sector came prominently to the limelight which sent several people running to partake of its glory and largesse, particularly during the oil boom period where there was a striking hike or rise in the price of oil in the 1970s.
Sadly, regardless of the huge munificence and proceeds that amount from this sector annually, the country is yet to witness any significant developmental changes. Buomo (2010) submitted that the oil industry had risen to 'commanding heights' of the economy of Nigeria which contributes a huge part to the GDP as well as accounts for the bulk of the government's revenue and foreign exchange since 1970; but nevertheless the considerable endowment of this oil has not translated into a phenomenal economic performance, but rather has assumed a precarious dimension in the past decades and susceptible to the varies if the international oil market.
In the first fifteen years after oil was struck in 1958, Omotoso (2009) averred that the Nigerian oil industry grew in leaps and bends. He noted that over half of the country's surface area of 357, 000 square miles is covered by sedimentary rocks where oil bearing rocks are most likely to be found and that these basins cover most of the Eastern and Mid Western part of Nigeria which extends northward to the confluence of Niger and Benue rivers. The Niger Delta accordingly, has been admitted by experts 'as one of the prolific oil producing prospects in the world and that the excellent quality of its crude oil and Nigeria's relative proximity to markets in Western Europe, North and South America, should ensure that it will continue to be a major of offshore interest and activity' (Omotoso, 2009:138).
2.7 THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
The agricultural sector used to be the erstwhile major contributor to the Nigerian economy before and during the 1960's; especially via the revenues accrued from its exports of various agricultural produce that contributed colossally to the country's foreign reserves. However, due to the advent of oil exploitation that brought in 'easy' and huge sums of largesse to the country, as noted by different scholars in several works, the sector became practically jettisoned and deteriorated, despite the fact that it employs more than 60% of the country's labor force with the political leaders manifesting impulsively their hands on the oil proceeds, whilst caring less to subsequently upgrade the oil sector.
The role of agriculture in transforming both the social and economic framework of an economy can't be overemphasized (Anyanwu et al, 1997). It was noted that during the colonial times the agricultural sector encompassed the engagement of peasant farmers in the production of more cash crops for sale to be eventually exported to Western Europe, where various Nigerian communities had actively engaged in the production of diverse food and cash crops (Anyanwu et al, 1997). Some of the food and cash crops that were cultivated then includes respectively, yam, cocoa yam, cassava (which was grown mostly in the South) as well as oil palm which came from the East, vast production of cocoa from the West, Cotton and Groundnuts from the North (ibid). Nigeria was actively involved in the exportation of these agricultural products which had initially contributed about 57% of Nigeria's GDP in 1929 where oil palm had accounted for about 85-70% of the total exports during the same period. Anynwu et al (1997) also recognized that during this period Nigeria's agricultural sector was still highly primitive; where the colonial masters had shown no interest or made no obvious attempt to upgrade the agricultural production technology and that worrisomely, since independence, the role of agriculture has declined in its contribution to the GDP with a major instigating factor being the discovery of crude oil as well as the poor performance of the deteriorating performance of the sector itself. Its share of the GDP fell from 61.50% in 1963/64 to 14.63% in 1983.
The drastic decline in the performance and contribution of agriculture to the GDP of the nation's economy is a pathetic and alarming situation the country faces and is yet to fully recover from which poses itself as threat to food security in the nation. This is postulated thus because of the significant role of agriculture in transforming the social and economic framework of an economy as aforementioned. The agricultural sector of any country ought to be well catered for as this is the nerve center that envisages or provides for the nation's food security and in the case of Nigeria, the provision of avenues of livelihood for a huge number of the populace. Reports show that agriculture contributes to about 60% of the nation's work force. In addition, notwithstanding the obvious obnoxious negligence of the Nigeria agricultural sector that has suffered decline or deterioration, considering the proposed significance of the agricultural sector in spurring economic development, Reynolds (1975) as cited by Anyanwu et al (1997:12) postulated ways at which agricultural development can contribute to the economic development of underdeveloped countries in four distinct categories:
1. By increasing the supply of food available for domestic consumption and releasing the labor needed for national development.
2. By enlarging the size of the domestic market for the manufacturing sector
3. By increasing the supply of domestic savings
4. By providing the foreign exchange earned by agricultural exports.
Though, agriculture has been considered important in the national development of developing countries as attested to by Omowale and Rogrigues (1979), nonetheless, in the case of Nigeria the agriculture dais or potentiality of the nation has not been properly harnessed to adequately meet the consumption needs of the teeming populace especially since the exploitation of the oil resource. The output of the agricultural sector overtime has become highly insufficient and is in disequilibrium in proportion to the corresponding needs of the nation, as result of negligence of the sector as well as the unfavorable atmosphere and lacking incentives for the development of agriculture in the country.
The agricultural sector nevertheless faces some challenges that have hindered its development. Shamija (2006:58) in his work identified some of the problems with the agricultural sector as being attributed to poor infrastructural facilities, invasion of farms that are attacked by quiver birds, poor supply and high cost of fertilizers and a general rise in prices of farm inputs as well as poor road network which has consequently resulted in an increased cost of farming operations and the evacuation of products from farm to urban markets.
Uchendu Eugene Chigbu, a Public Affairs Analyst, in Newswatch Magazine ( February, 2014) described agriculture as the mainstay of mankind with nations all over the world making it a priority by developing and exploring the sector for the upkeep of their teeming populations, earning of revenue for development purposes as well as creating employments opportunities for the youths. The aforementioned shows the importance of agriculture in any economy particularly Nigeria. He further affirmed that the agriculture sector is the major and sure path to economic growth and sustainability and that surely the neglect of agriculture in Nigeria is traceable to irresponsible and bad leadership.
Fasipe (1990) submits that the desertion of the agricultural sector and the reliance of Nigeria on a mono- cultural, crude oil-based economy have not augured well for the well-being of the country's economy. He added that in a bid to address this drift, the Nigerian government as from 1975 became directly involved in the commercial production of food crops.
In buttressing the importance of agriculture as an important area that needs to be focused on in spurring development in the nation, The Abia state Commissioner for Commerce and Industries, Victoria Akanwa (2000) as cited by Eke (2010:229) stated that:
It is in the agricultural sector that the battle for long-term economic development will be won and lost'the main burden of development; employment creation will have to be borne by the part of the economy in which agriculture is predominantly active. Consequently, the agricultural sector in particular and the rural economy in general need to be the overall strategy of economic development. (Eke 2010:229)
Eke (2010:229) postulated observed that since the interest in agriculture has declined, the successive administrations that have come up have finagled an increase in agricultural productivity via various policies which severally turned out to be 'more diversionary tactics that never achieved significant result other than serving as conduits to siphon government funds to settle political friends and cronies. Before the emergence of the Jonathan administration, the state of agriculture in Nigeria had been attested to be pathetic compared to other African states as affirmed by Eke (2010:229).
Eke (2010) is of the view that Nigeria has the potentials for the production of agricultural products and food on a large scale, which if properly maximized or harnessed with the participation of the government, private investors, foreign direct investment (FDI) and multilateral supports, the national economy would be boosted via the resultant acceleration of the GDP. He also reasoned that the involvement and maximization of the country's diplomatic resources is useful and important in boosting the agricultural sector via engaging their diplomatic means in earning international support in the resuscitation and revitalization of Nigeria's 'numerous but fledging agricultural programmes that have over the years deepened the country's food crisis.'
2.8 CHALLENGES OF THE OIL SECTOR AND OVERRELIANCE OF OIL AS AN IMPLICATION ON THE NIIGERIAN ECONOMY
Volatility of oil price
According to Sola (2010), the impact of oil price shock in the economy is so intense that it affects all government monetary and fiscal policies as well as other economic activities. He stated that as a result of the uncertain character of the price of oil, there is a need for Nigeria to diversify its production base from one that is dependent on oil, in order to thaw or reduce the adverse effects of oil instability on the economy and that during the periods of excess revenue, the government should make efforts to embark on massive investment.
Obadan (1996) as cited by Sola (2010:51) posited that 'the unstable nature of crude oil prices upon which Nigeria depends for over 95% of her foreign exchange earnings does not augur well for the economy.'
Oyeyemi (2013) explains that a part of the recent changes in oil prices in the international economy is a result of the upsurge in the demand of oil by China and India. The profound fluctuations that oil prices have witnessed is accordingly asserted to have implications for the performance of the macroeconomic variables which poses itself as a great challenge for policy makers. He is of the view that Nigeria's overreliance on crude oil has severe implications for the Nigeria economy as a result of current wide swings in oil prices in the international oil market. He analyzed that the transmission mechanisms through which oil prices influences economic activities include both supply and demand channels where the supply side effects occurs as result of oil being a basic input to production and therefore, an upsurge in the price leads to a consequent rise in production.
However, Obadan (1983) rather had a positive view of volatility of oil prices where he explained that increasing or high oil prices had a positive effect on government revenue whereby the government utilizes the resultant high revenue from oil to develop other sectors of the Nigerian economy which include areas such as education, agriculture etc. that would do well in spurring development.
According to Nkomo (2006) 3 epochs have influence the determination of crude oil prices in the international market which he noted to majorly include the 1970's, a period prior which oil prices was imperatively determined by multinational oil companies until the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a powerful cartel had sprung up and proved its ability to control the prices of oil in regards to the output decisions that were reached and finally, the ending of the 1980's, a period since where international oil prices have been determined by a market related price system which links oil prices to the market price of particular reference crude.
In the work of Ayadi (2000), he observed that the oil shock had had impacts on the economy of Nigeria; of which he asserted a positive oil production shock resulted to a rise in output as well as a decline in inflation and a consequent depreciation of the country's domestic currency.
Hamilton (2003) as cited by Oyeyemi 2013:346) is of the view that an increase in oil prices is of more significance when they occur after a period of stable oil prices than in a case where 'increases simply reverse earlier declines'.
Pricing of petroleum products in Nigeria
According to Ayodele and Campbell (2007) in regards to the problematic nature of pricing of petroleum products in the country, they argue that one of the most 'disturbing and frustrating economic development events' in the economy of the country as well as the society tracing back to the early 1990's is the continuous occurrence of the 'inadequacy of the supply and distribution of petroleum products with associated disruption of economic activities and social life in the country.' A critical point of the effect of this pricing accordingly was May 29, 1999 where this evident according to Ayodele and Campbell (2007) was 'compounded or worsened by some other prevailing undesirable developments such as chronic budget deficits, erosion of the naira value, huge internal and external debts and serious economic decline resulting in a kind of situation which according Iwayemi 2001, Ayodele 1999 & 2001, Okubode 2001 as cited in Ayodele and Campbell (2010:37) define as 'an undesirable turning point in an unfolding sequence of events, an important outcome whose consequences could reshape the future of the economy undesirably and a convergence of events that result in a new set of negative circumstances.'
Ayodele and Campbell(2010) found out that the government has proposed several objectives specifically on energy related issues which are majorly aimed at eliminating the problems created by the shortfall in the supply of petroleum products which include;
Economic decline, losses in national output and economic growth, greater unemployment and higher inflationary pressure, greater fiscal and current account burden, sizeable foreign exchange requirement for the most available but large fuel imports sold below import costs, loss of millions of man-hours through queuing for fuel by workers and enterprises; and the foregone output and profit due to acute shortage and adulteration by some unscrupulous people.
Furthermore they stated that in the attainment of these objectives some strategies were designed for adoption which include;
the privatization of utility enterprises and other capital-intensive enterprises; including Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC); reduction of tariff in favor of imported raw materials and the rehabilitation and resuscitation of infrastructural facilities to encourage increased capacity utilization and increased budgetary allocation to the sector.
Global warming effect/ Global climate change
Indeed there has been a widespread awareness across international borders as well as a global debacle on the issue of global warming and its perilous effects. This issue has raised several debates and stimulated even the world's developed countries to meet together and decide on how to effectively tackle the issue timely in order to curtail or reduce the occurring repercussions of global warming as well as forestall any future escalations that may be triggered by mankind's exploitative or exploratory economic activities that prove to be unfriendly and hazardous to the earth as well as humans. According to (IPCC 1996, 1998 as cited by Ikeme, 2013) 'Human economic activities has, in the last 100 years, contributed to an increase in the concentration of 'greenhouse gases' in the atmosphere leading to the 'enhanced' greenhouse effect which in turn is expected to result in climate change.' As a result of the adverse effect of the excessive green house gases that are multiplied in the atmosphere which is especially spurred by fossil fuels, the international community has met to formulate policies in addressing this issue, especially in seeking alternative sources of energy as against fossil fuels. Accordingly it has been estimated that the extraction and burning of fossil fuels is the source of about 70-90% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, which is considered to be the most important greenhouse gas (Strong, 1992; Edge and Tovey, 1996 as cited by Ikeme, 2013).
What poses more fear about the issue of global climate change is its likely effect on Nigeria's economy, drawing from the decisions that have been made by the developed nations as regards fossil fuels and global warming. According to Ikeme, Nigeria stands a high chance of suffering income losses with the commencement or takeoff plans of the global community to substitute renewable energy alternatives for fossil fuels. It had been summarized in the Kyoto protocol for developed countries otherwise referred to as Annex 1 countries restrictively, to reduce or thaw their emissions of greenhouse gases by 5% by the period between 2008-2012 and though Nigeria which is a 'non-Annex 1 country isn't part of this law, she has high chances of being affected (Ikeme, 2013)). He further explained the implications of the policies that had been propelled due to global warming by the international community on Nigeria's economy:
Given the exclusive reliance on fossil fuels for foreign exchange and the predominant focus on further expansion of this sector of the economy by the Nigerian government, the impact of the global shift away from fossil fuels is bound to cripple the Nigerian economy. As it stands, the Kyoto Protocol, if fully implemented, would lead to a dramatic loss of revenue for oil-exporting countries, as a result of a heavy reduction in demand for petroleum. Independent studies estimate the loss at tens of billions of US dollars per year for OPEC's members of which Nigeria is one, and up to 25% reduction in the OPEC's revenues by 2010. Such a heavy decline in income would strike at the very heart of Nigeria's economic and social infrastructures, causing a radical scaling down of development plans and entailing huge cutbacks in such vital services as education and health care. It would also affect its ability to invest in future production capacity (Ikeme, 2013).
Omotoso (2009:98) observed that global warming is an environmental effect of oil. He explained the process where he noted that as petroleum burns, it releases carbon dioxide which is a greenhouse gas and attested that petroleum combustion is proven to be the largest contributor to the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (co2) which drives global warming.
Hazard to domestic environment and host communities
According to Apata (2013), the discovery of petroleum in commercial quantities in Oloibiri in Rivers states in 1956 as well as its exploitation in 1958, affected the ecosystem and the once thriving economy of the host communities. He further stated that the exploration of crude oil has stimulated environmental problems of serious concern in the host communities or oil producing areas which has seriously taken a toll on agricultural activities which served as a source of livelihood to the people and has consequently caused a drastic decline in their income. As a result of this, such affected people as he explained in order to keep up their survival and sustenance, have no other choice than to resort to 'multiple choices of farm non-rural activities to improve household income.'
Albeit the importance of oil which is a significant source of energy which is especially needed to facilitate economic activities since the Industrial Revolution can't be overemphasized, nevertheless its hazardous complications and implications on human lives and environment can't be ignored. According to Sambo (2011), even though energy is an important input needed for economic growth, its production, transformation, transmission, distribution and utilization create negative impacts on the environment in the household, work place, and city as well as at the national, regional and global levels.
Omotoso (2009:190) stressed that the ecological impact of the oil industry caused the people in the Niger Delta region to suffer multi-dimensional problems which include 'degradation of their agricultural lands, coastal and riverbank erosion, fisheries depletion, deforestation, loss of bio-diversity, water hyacinth expansion, oil pollution, industrial effluents, industrial solid and toxic waste disposal as well as air emission.' He further noted that according to a 2001 conservative estimate of the ecosystem degradation caused by pollution from oil exploration in Niger Delta, about $5 billion dollars have been lost which excludes 'the economic loss of fisheries, agriculture, clean surface water on which the Niger Delta's population and 70% of Nigeria directly depends' (Omotoso, 2009:190).
Nigeria has been recorded to have a greater potential for gas than it has for oil with a total reserve of gas at 165 trillion standard cubic feet (scf), (Omotoso, 2009). According to him, as at 2000, Nigeria produced approximately 1,681.66 billion scf of gas where 1, 3715 billion were associated gas and the rest 310.16 billion was non-associated gas. He observed that as a result of the unavailability of infrastructure, 75% of the associated gas is flared with the remaining while the remaining 12% is being re-injected to enhance oil recovery and that the government's apparent inaction to curtail it has led to serious suffering to the people of the Niger Delta region, where oil exploration activities take place. He noted that albeit Nigeria is a signatory to some international conventions against gas flaring such as United Nations Agenda 21 and the Kyoto Protocol, Nigeria has failed to enforce any of these covenants or agreements. To him, gas flaring is a critical problem which occurs as a by-product of oil exploration that when released into the atmosphere it becomes harmful, especially when the concentration in the atmosphere surpasses a 'tolerable level' and when it enters its poisonous organic particles enter into human lungs it triggers chronic respiratory diseases that can cause cancer of the lungs. Considering its economic effect, accordingly, as specified by the Environmental Rights Action, 'gas flaring causes acid rain, which acidifies the lakes and streams and damages crops and vegetation. It reduces farm yield and harms human health, lives and livelihood.' As an economic loss, he further identified that Nigeria which is apparently Africa's largest and the 7th world's largest gas holder has flared more than $72 billion of associated gas which has been estimated to be an economic loss of $2.5 billion per year and that according to experts, this wasted associated gas has the capacity of power about 50% of Africa's annual energy consumption.
Vandalism/ Oil bunkering
Several accounts have been noted about the dilemma of oil vandalism/ pipeline disruptions and oil bunkering in the country, which is very common. These activities that are considered illegal have huge economic effects. Omotoso (2009) opined that pipeline disruption or vandalism is one of the major challenges facing Nigeria's oil industry. He noted that according to NNPC, about N270 million had been lost in the Niger Delta region due to pipeline disruption and that even the Nigerian Gas Company acclaimed that it had lost 200 million standard cubic feet of gas daily, which was valued around N6 million, due to the fact that these disrupted pipelines couldn't be easily repaired. As analyzed by Omotoso (2009:187) in line with the losses the Nigerian Gas Company had recorded, it was noted that 'since 85% of the gas was sold to the Power Holding Company of Nigeria PLC, which pays N30 per thousand cubic feet, then it meant that the 200 million sdf of wasted gas would amount to about N270 million. This is without the remaining 20% that would have been sold to other industrial customers.' There has been about 108 attacks on oil facilities in the country between 2006 and 2009, when the Movement of the Emancipation of the Niger Delta announced their rebellion which led to the loss of about 1 million barrels production of crude oil per day as at then (Omotoso,2009:187).
According to Omotoso (2009:189), 'illegal oil bunkering is the criminal aspect of oil exploration and production. While oil bunkering is the industry term used in describing the lifting of oil officially permitted by the authority, illegal oil bunkering is doing the same without any official authorization. Simply put, illegal oil bunkering means oil theft.' He noted that the Maritime Industry Advocacy Initiative in May 2011 had released a report regarding illegal oil bunkering which puts Nigeria's loss of oil at 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, where a barrel as at then was about N112.52 per barrel that apparently translated into $23.64 billion loss for the country annually which is equivalent to N3.7 trillion.
Michael Eboh in the Vanguard Newspaper (May 2, 2013) in affirmation of the recurrent menace and illegal act of oil vandalism lamented that the incessant vandalism and theft of crude oil is a big threat to the nation's oil and gas industry.
It has been observed by Jinuh Okon in the Guardian Newspaper (May 2, 2014) that activities of oil theft are happening where stolen crude pass through at night which is been with the aid of small vessels that transfer these crude oil into large3r vessels like ships that are anchored or navigated on international waters. As a solution to this problem, Okon stated that the issue be tackled not exclusively by Nigeria but with an involvement of the help of other countries, as these activities take place on international waters as well as adding that for the problem of oil vandalism to be curtailed, Nigeria should adopt Russia's system of crating or establishing 'a dedicated pipeline protection unit as obtained in Russia,' (The Guardian Newspaper, May 2, 2014).
Implications of overreliance on oil in Nigeria
The dependence of Nigeria on oil, a non-renewable source of energy, poses a serious threat to the country's economy and future development both in the short-run and long-run. This is so because it has a high tendency to become depleted as research has discovered. Another threat such overreliance poses is the resultant absence or sluggishness of alternative investment in other sectors as well as the price volatility of oil in the international market. Since the oil boom era of the 1970s, Nigeria has generated a lot of revenue from oil and has researchers have examined, this notwithstanding has not successfully translated to true development.
Adenikinju (2010) posits that oil booms merely increased the consumption patterns of both the government and ordinary citizens, without the country developing internal capacity for sustaining them. He further argues that 'the history of oil has been characterized by almost an equal measure of progress and retardation, blessings and curses, hopes and hopelessness, wealth and poverty and inability to translate the good luck of oil to build an efficient modern society.' This assertion is true because during the oil boom years, the government embarked on several extravagant projects and the love of imported goods by both the government and citizens experienced a drastic upsurge, where the manufacturing sector as well as the agricultural sector were practically neglected which was deleterious to the country's economy that later boomeranged in the 1980's when oil prices declined.
Oyeyemi (2013) is of the view that Nigeria's heavy reliance on crude oil exports has severe implications for the Nigerian economy as a result of the current wide swings in oil prices in the international oil market.
Jinuh Okon in the Guardian Newspaper (May 2, 2014) spoke against Nigeria's overreliance on crude oil as a major source of the government's revenue, where he stated that though oil contributes to about 15% of the nation's GDP, it however constitutes about 85% of the government's revenue, further warning against the complete reliance on a non-renewable product such as oil 'whose price cannot be determined or controlled locally.' He went ahead to emphasize on the need to utilize our energy resource to create wealth for the people in the country rather than as a means of rent collection, which supports the claim that indeed Nigeria is a rentier state or engages in rent seeking activities.
2.9 DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN NIGERIA
Just as the popular adage that goes 'he who fails to plan, plans to fail', in the same vein the importance of planning in any nation that doesn't wish to go down the pit of failure and underdevelopment can't be overemphasized. Planning has been and still remains an essential activity that nations meticulously embark on or resort to in fostering development within different spheres of the country, especially their economies.
As noted by Anyanwu et al (1998), planning occupies a key place in economic activities and it is an important means which the state utilizes that guides and accelerates economic development. Yesufu (1996) as cited by Anayanwu (1998: ) also posited that any underdeveloped country that wishes to embark on the path of real growth must plan effectively for it.
According to Anyanwu et al (1998), development planning can be described as a conscious effort on the part of the state to influence, direct and in some cases even control changes in the principal economic variables (i.e. consumption, investment, savings, exports and imports) of a nation over a period of time in order to achieve a pre-determined set of objectives. In a simple term, he defined it to be the preparation and implementation of directional blueprint for the entire economy and/or parts thereof.
Accordingly, a development plan is a document by the government containing a review of government policies, the current national economic conditions, a macroeconomic projection of the economy, proposed public expenditures, likely development in the private sector and specific set of quantitative economic targets to be reached in a given period of time etc. which may be comprehensive or partial (Anyanwu et al, 1998).
In another development, Anyanwu analyzed the different types of development planning as well as various types of development plans. He identified the types of planning to be perspective planning, indicative planning, project planning, macro planning and multi-sectoral planning.
Poor planning of the economy has apparently caused an upsurge in the scale of unemployment in the nation, where graduates over the years have been affected as asserted by Ijiomah (2002).
In view of the shortcomings of development planning efforts in the country, the National Planning Commission also postulated that:
Nigeria's development efforts have over the years been characterized by lack of continuity, consistency and commitment (3Cs) to agreed policies, programs and projects as well as an absence of a long-term perspective. The culminating effect has been growth and development of the Nigerian Economy without a concommittant improvement in the overall welfare of Nigerian citizens. Disregard to these 3Cs has resulted in rising unemployment, inequality and poverty. (NPC, 2011)
Soludo (2006) considers it a remarkable thing that Nigeria has borne in mind the possibility, will or foresight of joining the League of Nations and emerging industrialist countries as well become enlisted amongst the top twenty economies of the world, but that such can only be achievable if the current programmes of reforms to spur development in the country can be sustained. He further posited that achieving such a huge feat also comes alongside huge challenges that need to be rigorously tackled.
Soludo (2006) in a bid to express his view regarding Nigeria's intent towards becoming an advanced economy as well as the challenges confronting our economy that needs to be urgently resolved stated that:
Overcoming the decay of four decades and joining the club of advanced economies will task the energies of all Nigerians and our development partners. We still have huge infrastructure deficiencies to fix; insecurity of lives and properties to be solved; deal with huge urban unemployment emanating from the demographic structure and failure of development at the lower levels of government; provide housing and mortgage system; address the educational crisis and scale up rapidly on science and technology; continue to upgrade our capacity in agriculture; promote trade and integration with the rest of the world; drastically reduce the cost of doing business and build competitive advantages. More predominantly, we need to build a socio-economic and political system that guarantees equal opportunity and voice to all-a competitive and equitable system where each individual has every chance of success in life. We still have challenges of ethnicity and religion to deal with, as well as agitations of ethnic militia groups. These challenges cannot be dealt with in one day: it will take concerted efforts for several years to build that African superpower (Soludo, 2006).
Osisioma (2012) posited that Nigeria is not a stranger to economic reforms and that before the 1980's, these reforms were majorly in form of 'extended national perspective plans that attempted to mobilize human, material and industrial resources of the nation to achieve goals of national life' such as the 1962-68 plan, 1970-74 plan, 1975-98 plan and 1981-85 plan. He lamented that the subsequent implementation of these plans barely realized a fundamental restructuring of the national economy and that ''they were in the main, monetarist prescriptions that did little or nothing to address the structural and fundamental distortions in the economic, social and political life of the nation.' He gave a detailed account of these previous different reforms or plans to spur national development by past administrations which include the Structural Adjustment Programme by Babaginda introduced in 1986, Vision 2010 introduced by Abacha in 1998, the NEEDS and SEEDS in 2004 by Obasanjo, the 7 point Agenda for national development by Yaradua in 2007 and currently the Transformation Agenda in 2011 by Jonathan which is a focus in this research work.
Lawal and Abe (2011) stated that Nigeria has had series of development plans and that the country seems to be 'the only country where virtually all notions and models of development have been experienced' (Aremu, 2003 as cited by Lawal and Abe, 2011: 238). The duo further opined that Nigeria has initiated different development plans and strategies but without 'any clear methodological approach towards achieving them and that the attempts of successive governments to put in place development strategies in generating meaningful development have proved futile.
2.10 THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA
What is Transformation? According to Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary (2005), transformation is a complete change in somebody or something; to transform means to change the form of something and to completely change the appearance or character of something so that it is better.
According to the NPC (2011), the Transformation Agenda is based on a set of priority policies and programmes which when implemented will transform the Nigerian economy to meet the future needs of the Nigerian people and draws from the NV 20:2020 and the 1st National Implementation Plan (NIP), which aims to deepen the effects and provide a sense of direction for the current administration over the next four years. Accordingly, these prioritized policies, programmes and projects embedded in the Transformation Agenda had been properly scrutinized by a presidential committee that was set up and endorsed by the President.
NPC (2011) noted that the mandate of the Presidential Committee was defined to be;
1. Identification of the key policies, programmes and projects to be delivered within the next four
As observed by Itah (2012) cited by Gyong (2013:5), the transformation Agenda of Goodluck Jonathan is a policy package that intends repositioning the economy of Nigeria by addressing challenging issues confronting our national development such as poverty, unemployment, insecurity and most principally, engendering the diversification of the whole economy from total reliance on oil to a significant dependence on the non-oil sector or a 'non-oil driven economy'.
According to a statement by President Goodluck Jonathan in a compendium compiled by his administration in 2011, 'in order to set Nigeria on a sound and sustainable path towards economic growth, this administration unveiled a set of priority policies, programmes and projects encapsulated in the Transformation Agenda.' As stated in the compendium these programmes and policies are aimed at consolidating the country's budget, fostering the creation of jobs, engendering a private sector-led inclusive growth and creating an enabling environment for businesses to thrive for the ultimate betterment of the lives of Nigerians.
Okidegbe (2011) asserted reasons why the Transformation Agenda is needed by classifying these reasons as inherent in the nature of the domestic and global environment. Under the domestic environment which is more of the internal factors that necessitated the Transformation Agenda, include the country's high dependence on oil, its weak industrial base, the nature of its dominant primary sector which is characterized with an unhelpful value chain and macroeconomic imbalance. Under the global environment, the factors entail the slow growth in the U.S, debt crises in the European Union (E.U.), high inflation in emerging markets and the likelihood of a double-dip recession.
According to Okidegbe (2011), the goals of the Transformation Agenda include policy and institutional reforms, promotion of investment-led inclusive growth, increment of job creation and implementation of safety net programs. Under the policy and institutional reforms, the Transformation Agenda seeks to harmonize fiscal and monetary policies geared towards creating an enabling policy environment, reform regulatory framework with emphasis on rationalizing and streamlining and strengthening capacity in MDAs via training programs. In a bid to promote investment-led inclusive growth, the Transformation Agenda will focus on infrastructure, security, agriculture and value chains, industrial and manufacturing clusters, human capital development, housing and construction, entertainment industry. The increment of job creation under the Transformation Agenda envisages spurring the PPP i.e. Private-Public Partnership, an adequate education system where a system will be initiated or created on 'matching skills with job market demands', tax incentives for firms with high employment potentials, increasing vocational, technical and ICT forms of knowledge, public works and direct labor employment. While the implementation of the Safety Net Programs entails school feeding programs, NEEDS-based and conditional cash transfers, free pre-natal program for indigent pregnant women and special direct youth employment program.
Leon Usigbe presented a lucid and simplified breakdown of the Transformation Agenda which envisages key areas of the economy that the Goodluck Jonathan's Administration targets on working on within program period of 2011-2015 in a bid to curtail the national development challenges in the country or to spur national development. The Key areas targeted under the Transformation Agenda include;
1. Macroeconomic framework and economic direction
2. Job creation
3. Public expenditure management
5. Justice and judiciary
6. Foreign policy and economic diplomacy
9. Health sector
10. Labor and productivity
11. Infrastructure policies, programs and projects
13. Information and communication technology
The compendium for the Jonathan administration (2012) had outlined the achievements that had been recorded in Nigeria's economy between the periods of 2011-2012 fostered by the Transformation Agenda. It stated that in 2011, the Nigerian economy grew by 7.45%. As at May 2012, the foreign exchange reserves had risen to $37.02 billion, which was recorded to be the highest within a 21 months period of time. Interestingly, the fiscal regime had been recorded to have stabilized and improved; as the fiscal deficit has been brought down to 2.85% of GDP from 2.9% in 2011; recurrent expenditure has been reduced from 74% to 715 while domestic borrowing has been reduced from N852 billion in 2011 to N744 billion in 2012. The government was also noted to have succeeded in cutting over N100 billion of non-essential expenditure and increased Nigeria's internally generated revenue from N200 billion to N467 billion. Breaking the record for the first time over a decade, a Draft Trade Policy had notably been formulated and implemented 'which provides a multidimensional framework to boost Nigeria's trade regime and facilitate the flow of investment.'
In another development, the compendium also explained that the Agricultural Transformation Agenda which springs from the Transformation Agenda is also a major goal the President's administration has targeted to attain in an effort to spur the economy's diversification, which is directed at promoting local production, substituting for imported foods and adding value to locally produced crops. Accordingly, some positive achievements have already been attained under the ongoing Agricultural Transformation Agenda by the Goodluck Jonathan's administration which will subsequently be discussed in details.
In a lucid view of the Transformation Agenda, Dangana (2011) declared that regardless of the persistent and hostile views or reactions of many Nigerians against the Transformation Agenda, the president 'has clear and verifiable record and pedigree of articulating fundamental national issue and achieving it.' He observed that the vision of Goodluck in transforming the country rather than getting encouragement or praises from many Nigerians has on the contrary stimulated a response of criticism and contempt from the citizens.
Dangana (2011) explained that for a nation to be reformed, it is not of necessity that the reformer has to be a 'noisemaker, rash or domineering kin order to succeed and that even in private lives of people, the greatest achievers are always calm, quiet, unassuming, calculative and sober.' He stated this in negation of the view of many Nigerians who had criticized the President's calm nature and interpreting it as a sign of incapability of handling the affairs of the nation; especially in successfully running the Transformation Agenda. Dangana (2011) posits that it takes more than a leader having a radical or oppressive behavior or personality to become effective and in this context, President Jonathan doesn't need such bossy or domineering traits before he can successfully transform Nigeria, but rather;
'Transformation will take place through well articulated ideas with the discipline to implement the ideas, the need to get competent and morally upright individuals to man strategic public institutions that would be used as tools of change. A vital virtue that is required by a leader driving a transformation process is the discipline and commitment to bear all the repercussions of the process of change. If it turns out well, he becomes celebrated' (Dangana, 2011).
In a further affirmation of the president's capability of driving the Transformation Agenda, Dangana (2011) gives credit as well as makes due reference to President Jonathan's achievement in practically effecting a successful electoral reform during the 2011 national elections, even though it was acclaimed to be 80% credible, he was the first president to break such an impressive and internationally recognized record or height of adjudged credibility during elections in Nigeria's history of presidential candidates. He therefore assumes that with the successful electoral reforms he was able to effect, Nigerians should know that the president has the pedigree and record of setting agenda for reforms and transformations and achieving it, even when it's against the whims and caprices of other powerful, ruthless and ever manipulative politicians occupying space in Nigeria's political and economic domain; which qualifies him to be simultaneously capable of successfully implementing the Transformation Agenda.
Dangana (2011) admonished that Nigerians have faith in the President's promise of transforming Nigeria and rather than persistently criticize him which is a sure way of killing a person's morale, courage and optimism of performing well, he should be 'praised and supported' which will further boost his courage and serve as a driving force for him to perform better and put more zealous efforts in transforming Nigeria, which he already has started; after all nothing good comes easy and Rome most definitely wasn't built in a day.
As regards the President goal of reforming the oil sector, Omotoso (2011) stated that President Goodluck Jonathan at the inception of his administration had set out an expansive objective of revamping or renovating the sector and to this effect, he had foisted on the lucidly foisted on the Ministry of Petroleum Resources the responsibility of transmitting or carrying out the various reforms that would transform the entire industry. He observed that after a year of 'sustained efforts' the Ministry has been to attain some achievements that are notably 'in line with the Presidential marching order'.
In cognizance of the problem of an uneven distribution of wealth in the country, as reported by the Guardian Newspaper (May 2, 2013), the President lucidly stated his interest to ensure that his administration is committed to making sure more individuals have access to finance in order for them to be able to adequately create wealth for themselves.
The Guardian Newspaper (May 2, 2014) captured that the government was already making efforts to move agriculture from 'just a development programme to wealth creation and a major business,' and that the government had introduced the Electronic Wallet in agriculture sector to enhance the access of rural farmers to income via bank facilities.
2.11 DIVERSIFICATION OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
According to United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change (2014):
Economic diversification is generally taken as the process in which a growing range of economic outputs is produced. It can also refer to the diversification of markets for exports or the diversification of income sources away from domestic economic activities (i.e. income from overseas investment). Economic diversification in its standard usage, either in terms of the diversity of economic activities or markets, is a significant issue for many developing countries, as their economies are generally characterized by the lack of it.
They have traditionally relied heavily on the production of primary commodities that are predominantly vulnerable to climate variability and change.
Obasaju (2010) argued that the Nigerian government has done close to nothing in the diversification of the Nigerian economy.
In salvaging the economy of Nigeria, Oyeyemi (2013) suggested the need to diversify the productive base of the economy into sectors such as agriculture, tourism and manufacturing as well as other services oriented sectors in order to facilitate or accelerate the generation of revenue to the country's economy and curtail the overreliance of oil in the country's economy. He is also of the view that the government should increase credible spending on capital projects in order to enhance the non-oil sector productivity and ultimately encourage indigenous industrialists to domestically produce finished goods that are modern, of good quality and that have a positive price.
In a show of interest to diversify the country's economy and an acknowledgement of the agricultural sector, The President, Goodluck Jonathan in a statement sourced from his administration's compiled compendium declared that 'our goal is to transform Nigeria from a mono-cultural economy to a diversified one. The sector we are focusing on to diversify our economy and one which Nigeria has comparative advantage is the agricultural sector. Agriculture accounts for about 40% of our GDP and 70% of employment.' Increases in agricultural productivity according to the president would do well in driving down rural poverty and revive the rural economy. In this regard, there is an aggressive pursuit of the agricultural transformation agenda as agriculture is no longer seen as a development program, but as a potential business anyone can apparently generate wealth and which is capable of creating jobs for millions of Nigerian youths, which is a positive diversification consideration that will do well in spurring national development (Compendium of the Jonathan Administration, 2012).
As observed by Abati (2013) the President had also expressed his commendations on the platform of a meeting with the Nigerian community, the efforts of the National Assembly's ongoing process of expanding the coverage of the Local Content Act to sectors other than oil and gas as well as saying that the move will do well in furthering a stimulation of the domestic industrialization which will contribute significantly to the craved diversification of Nigeria's economy.
According to the Guardian Newspaper (2 May, 2014), as a strategy or means to diversify the country's economy, the Federal Government seeks to develop the solid mineral sector and this has been supported by the World Bank which gave Nigeria $120 million to facilitate the development of the solid mineral sector.
Ezekwesili(2006) posited that the oil boom experienced in the 1970's and its subsequent crash was a lucid evidence of the need of the country to diversify its economy as well as channel resources into 'productivity-enhancing investments'. The former Minister of Solid Mineral Development, Ezekwesili (2006), further argued that Nigerian leaders had a wrong sense of security or overconfidence that oil would persist in its continuous supply of revenue to spur national development, which resulted in their poor manner of initiating policies and institutions. The unfavorable effect that the oil glut had on Nigeria's economy when the oil prices fell globally which was a big loss is an attestation to the humorous claim posited by Adiele (2009) that 'if the petroleum market sneezes, the Nigerian economy catches cold. This is so because the oil contributes to the bulk, about 90% of Nigeria's economy and if this is cut short, the economy becomes jeopardized as there are no other readily available highly contributing sources of income to the nation's economy as oil, which is even used as the main source of energy to fuel the country's economic, industrial or household activities.
Abati (2013) noted the intentions of the President in regards to the diversification of the economy where he stated that the President Goodluck Jonathan had said in Beijing that 'the increasing exploitation and utilisation of shale gas and other alternative sources of energy by the United States and other advanced nations of the world has made it more urgent for Nigeria to move faster towards the diversification of its economy.' As cited by Abati (2013), the President in concern of the gradual evolvement of the world's use of renewable or alternative sources of energy aside fossil fuels which necessitates the diversification of Nigeria's economy that is highly dependent on oil stated that:
That is why we have to increase the pace of diversifying our economy and moving our country away from dependence on the oil and gas industry. We must work towards greater industrialization, add more value to our agricultural products and develop our solid minerals potentials and other sectors of our economy before the time comes when crude oil may no longer be dominant as a global source of energy. (Jonathan, 2013)
Several literatures have been written to analyze or address the issues or challenges of national development Nigeria has been facing ever since she gained her independence as well as the visions and policies of different leaders that have ruled Nigeria and in this context, the challenges of national development the country has hitherto experienced since the president came into power. Though the transformation agenda was birthed to solve these challenges, little or no work has been done to comprehensively analyze the achievements the transformation agenda has been able to attain in its programmes, projects and policies so far in spurring national development, especially with a focus on the oil and agricultural sector. This research project therefore would evaluate the transformation agenda via its achievements as well as the factors that have limited and would inhibit its successful implementation, which would determine how well or not the country and its economy has been able to transform, how the economy diversification plan has been carried out and whether it is successfully transforming the mono-cultural economy to a diversified one and ultimately to what extent has the government been able to spur development in Nigeria since his regime kicked off via an assessment of the performance of key indicators of development currently in the country. Drawing from the definition given by Encarta Dictionary (2009) that transformation is a complete change into something that is usually with an improved appearance or usefulness; it is anticipated therefore that the Transformation Agenda ought to have propelled drastic changes in significant areas of the country, particular the 13 major sectors it has stipulated to transform with the economy being the thrust of this transformation and in a bid to meet its goal of Nigeria being amongst the 20 top economies by 2020. This research work would do justice in evaluating the extent to which these transformations have occurred or not.
2.12 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
What is a theory? According to Encarta (2009), a 'theory is an assumption or system of assumptions, accepted principles, and rules of procedure based on limited information or knowledge, devised to analyze, predict, or otherwise explain the nature or behavior of a specified set of phenomena; abstract reasoning.'
Several theories can explain the pathetic developmental situation experienced in Nigeria however, in relevance or context to this research work, 2 theories apparently explain the problem at hand. These theories particularly pertain to countries that are resource abundant, have mono product economies where there is an overreliance on primary products with little or no diversification and are experiencing inefficient maximization or utilization of these resources as well as an improper investment of the revenues that accrue from them and also undergo developmental challenges. These two theories that can explain the problem of this research work include;
1. Rentier state theory
2. The Resource curse theory
RENTIER STATE THEORY
The rentier state theory envisages states that have a preferential attitude for depending on the rents from economic activities; especially the production and exportation of natural resources. The thrust of this theory is the problematic nature of dependence these states have on rents derived from activities they do not actively engage in, which isn't helpful to their economies as, any disruption in the flow of income from the depended resources could take a toll on them, especially when such wealth amassed from the wealth isn't properly invested just like in the case of Nigeria and some middle eastern countries a scholar like Thurston gives reference to in his work.
According to Thurston (2002), this theory of rents can be traced or dates back to the late 18th and 19th centuries in the times of renowned classical economists like Adam Smith and David Ricardo. In his view about rents, Adam Smith stated that 'rents enter into the composition of the prices of the commodities in a different way than wages and profits' (Thurston, 2002).
Thurston (2002) in his review of the theory of rents from the perspective of some social science scholars wrote in accordance to the observance of David Ricardo, that rent was a reward for the ownership of natural resources and not in a real sense the profit from it and further defined rents as 'income derived from the gift of nature'.
According to Thurston (2002), the rentier state theory argues that rentier states (which are states that depend on rents) defy the mechanism of work and rewards, where it obtains rewards without putting any direct efforts to make profits which are called rents.
This theory qualifies the case of the Nigerian economy and the attitude of its government, as Nigeria which has been identified as a mono-cultural economy has its government dependent on oil rents for a large proportion of its revenue and external reserves. The proceeds derived from the oil or other agricultural produce exports are referred to as rents, with the governments benefitting largely from it without engaging actively in its production as well as not properly developing these sectors well or even properly investing the revenue into other sectors that can contribute significantly to the economy.
Thurston (2002) reasons that the economic fortunes of a rentier state are said to rest majorly on the international market rather than domestic production and because of the huge benefits derived, the government fails to develop a strong domestic sector. The above proposition is affirmative, because the oil resources the nation depends on is being controlled by the prices of the international oil market, which actually dictates or marshals the boom or gloom the country's economy experiences. Here the volatility of oil prices can either work in favor of or against the economy with the increase or decrease in the price of oil. In cases where there is an increase in the price of oil a boom occurs that brings in a lot of income into the country's economy, just like Nigeria experienced in the 1970's; but in the event of the drastic fall in oil prices in 1980, it took a negative toll on the country's economy and equally as Thurston postulated, the nature of dependence on such revenues or economic fortunes, makes the government lackadaisical about other sectors that should spur domestic production of goods in the country which invariably stimulates a desire for foreign or imported goods, that also affects or cripples the economy when it becomes exaggerated. This accordingly, has affected the development of Nigeria as many sectors that used to be active before the production or exploitation of crude oil became abandoned and jettisoned until they deteriorated into a state of pitiable decay, which the present administration however is trying to revive. Sectors such as the transportation, agricultural, mining, telecommunications and power sectors had been affected, but currently undergoing 'transformation'.
The rentier state theory is said to have under it the concept of 'rent seeking' which crystallizes the absence of productivity on the part of the government in a state (Thurston, 2002). The rent seeking theory posits that every rentier economy inherently has rent seekers or citizens who are said to demand transfers of wealth from the state or wish to partake of the national cake at will. In the rentier-state model it was assumed by Di John (2010) that oil and mineral abundance apparently generates growth-restricting intervention by the state in these sectors and extraordinarily colossal levels of rent-seeking and 'where these rent-seeking contests are assumed to be uniformly negative in terms of the developmental outcomes they generate.'
Di John (2010) comprehensively explained the rentier state model stating that:
In the rentier-state model, oil and mineral abundance is assumed to generate growth-restricting state intervention and extraordinarily large degrees of rent-seeking, where these rent-seeking contests are assumed to be uniformly negative in terms of the developmental outcomes they generate. There are several important propositions that are developed within this framework. First, the existence of a higher level of mineral rents increases rent-seeking and corruption relative to economies with lower mineral abundance. Secondly, increases in rent-seeking and corruption generate lower growth. This is in part due to the fact that with corrupt transactions, the need to keep bribes secret reduces the security of property rights, which lowers investment in long-gestating projects. Third, oil rents provide a sufficient fiscal base of the state and thus reduce the necessity of the state to tax citizens. This in turn reduces political bargaining between state and interest groups, which makes governance more arbitrary, paternalistic and even predatory. Fourth, the absence of incentives to tax internally weakens the administrative reach of the state, which results in lower levels of state authority, capacity and legitimacy to intervene in the economy. (John, 2010)
He further reasoned that as a result of the fact that revenues originate in the central government in the context of oil economies, the level of state carefulness or interest in allocating resources and regulating the economy under their utmost jurisdiction tend to be higher than that of most non-oil economies and that the in the case of the rentier-state model, the predominant view is that economies that are dependent on the oil resource are susceptible to a higher level of rent-seeking activities as well as acts of corruption when compared with countries that are non-mineral abundant economies .
The rent-seeking model has been considered as been relevant or closely connected to the rentier state theory and equally characterizes the Nigeria economy. As postulated by Soludo (2006), Nigeria's economy has been popularly characterized as one that is rent seeking or dependent on rents; which have not been meaningfully invested to generate more income but has rather been expended more on recurrent expenditure rather than capital expenditure.
Bawa and Mohammed (2007) argue that oil as a resource makes 'societies less entrepreneurial and therefore less innovative' and that the abundance of oil wealth in a country spurs the activities of profit seekers in rent seeking engagements to appropriate wealth rather than birthing or backing new innovations. Kruger (1974) as cited by Bawa and Mohammed (2007:62) refers to rent seeking as largely unproductive, expropriating activities that bring positive returns to the individuals but not to the society. In the Nigerian case, most of the oil wealth has been indeed benefitted by the influential elites or politicians at the hem of affairs, who grossly engage in allocating huge sums to themselves or embezzling the nations funds while a huge segment of the populace wallow in poverty. These few economic and political elites who maneuver their way into political positions or affiliate themselves with those at the hem of political affairs in the country live luxurious lifestyles, eat the best of foods, live in huge mansions, go on holiday resorts all over the world, have huge business investment not just at home but even abroad and less concerned about the pathetic state of tertiary institutions in the country owned by the state and federal governments, their own are exported to the best universities abroad which are of course are expensive as their sophistication.
Ayodele ( ), argued in addition to the aforementioned act of Nigerian politicians embezzling or looting a largesse of the country's wealth from oil rents, that during the oil boom when amounts or revenue was generated into the country in the 1970's when the Arab-Israeli stirred a sharp rise in the price of oil from $3 per barrel to over $20, most of the nation's wealth was lavishly spent on huge projects that swallowed a lot of costs which were either recurrent expenditures or white elephant projects. A lot of waste was recorded during this period which should have been seized as a good opportunity t significantly develop different sectors of the economy that could spur economic growth as well as all round development.
Rent seeking activities are deleterious to the success of a country's development as it makes politics become more of a do or die affair as a result of politicians become desperate to acquire power and political positions in order to have more access to wealth, not because of the people's interest, but because of their selfish ambitions which include amassing huge wealth for themselves within the limited period they have. Bawa and Mohammed (2007) posit that rent seeking may breed corruption in business and government which could distort the distribution of resources as well as reduce both the 'economic efficiency and social equity' and that in the absence of innovations, such nation's economy may not experience rapid growth and becomes overly dependent on the natural resources as its main source of revenue.
RESOURCE CURSE THEORY
According to Investopedia (2013) a resource curse is 'a paradoxical situation in which countries with an abundance of non-renewable resources experience stagnant growth or even economic contraction. The resource curse occurs as a country begins to focus all of its energies on a single industry, such as mining, and neglects other major sectors. As a result, the nation becomes overly dependent on the price of commodities, and overall gross domestic product becomes extremely volatile.' Additionally, it has been postulated further that the resource curse situation triggers government corruption which often results when proper resource rights and an income distribution framework is not established in the society that results in unfair regulation of the industry; and this dilemma of the resource curse is most often witnessed in emerging markets following a major natural resource discovery (Investopedia, 2013).
John (2010) avers that the idea behind the resource curse is that the situation of mineral and fuel abundance in less developed countries (LDCs) tends to generate negative developmental outcomes which include poor economic performance, growth collapses, high levels of corruption, ineffective governance and greater occurrence of political violence and that natural resources for most countries that are experiencing poverty or that are poor, are apparently consider to be more of a curse than a blessing to these countries.
With this, scholars like Bawa and Mohammed (2007:59) postulated that a surprising feature in economic development history is the situation of countries that have abundant natural resources tending to' grow less rapidly than those without'. They observed in their analysis that out of 65 countries that are inherently classified as rich in natural resources, only four have attained a long-term investment that exceeded 25% of the GDP on an average from 1970-1988 which is apparently equal to that of various resource-poor countries that lack raw materials but have however, successfully industrialized. Accordingly, the four countries that were identified as rich in natural resources which succeeded out of the 65 were identified as Botswana, Indonesia, Malalysia and Thailand.
Furthermore these resource-rich countries that experience challenges of development are mostly known not to diversify their economies, whereas it was noted that three Asian countries have succeeded in their economies by diversifying as well as industrializing it (Bawa and Mohammed, 2007). Nigeria which is a resource rich country has truly failed to properly diversify its production base or economy that can significantly boost the country's revenue, which may be due to the fact that there is a lot of revenue that accrues from the crude oil sector that is over relied on. The failure to diversify the economy has spurred several developmental problems like high rates of poverty, unemployment opportunities, rent seeking and corruption etc. in the event of such overreliance on oil.
Nigeria's situation can be likened to that of a resource curse, as the abundance of natural resources she has with an emphasis on oil, rather than spur development and a betterment of the lives of the citizens has further stimulated political, economic, socio-economic, religious and even ethnic uprisings in the country. The situation has been recorded to be critical as regards the uneven distribution of the colossal oil wealth in the country that Wikipedia (2013) submitted that a huge percentage of the oil wealth benefits only a minute percent of the populace, while the rest is accessed by a large proportion which is an irony. This raises the question of whether oil is a curse or blessing to Nigeria. However, answers have been given in its being more of a curse than blessing.
Ayodele (2011) averred that the overreliance on oil has resulted in a consequent neglect of the manufacturing sectors as well as a decline in the contribution of agriculture in the GDP from 63% in 1960 to 34% in 1988. He further observed that large-scale industrialization never took off especially as a result of corruption, mismanagement and inefficiency that ruined government owned industries and businesses.
In stressing the issue with resource rich countries, Bawa and Mohammed (2007:61) rightly posited that:
It is conceivable that countries with rich supplies of natural resources should be able to increase their incomes, invest their wealth to fuel human development and build infrastructure, thus encouraging other industries to grow and thereby improving the quality of life of its citizens. Venezuela referred to this idea as 'sowing the seeds of the oil revenue'. However, the experience of most oil economies and resource abundant countries has not been a happy one. Consequently, it is important to know if a curse exists and the mechanism by which it casts its spell. (Bawa and Mohammed, 2007:61)
One of the consequences of natural resource abundance according to Bawa and Mohammed (2007: 61) have been attested to the 'Dutch Disease' which is said to be renamed after the recession that was experienced in Netherlands subsequent to its discovery of the natural gas reserves in the 1960's. The Duo, Bawa and Mohammed (2007) captured the Dutch Disease model, which is an extension or variant of the resource curse, to envisage the economy having three sectors which include a tradable natural resource sector, a tradable manufacturing sector and a non-traded sector. They explained that when the natural resources are huge, tradable production is inherently concentrated on or focuses on natural resources rather than other sectors such as manufacturing where the capital and labor that should have been employed in the manufacturing sector are rather channeled towards the non traded sector and so the consequent reality that occurs is the event of the exchange rate increasing rapidly, which hurts the export of other products and services. This accordingly, simultaneously increases the dependence of that country on its natural resources as well as imports that isn't so healthy for an economy when it's so high as to be in direct competition or threatening domestic production or industries in the country and which results to an eventual shrinkage of the manufacturing sector.
A. S Hornby (2005): Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
A. Sesan Ayodele and O.A Campbell (2007): Nigerian Management Review. A Journal of the Center for
Management Developmen). Volume 18, January-June, No. 1, 2007.
A.H Ekpo and O.J Umoh (2013): An Overview of Nigeria's Economic Growth and Development
A.S Sambo (2011): Energy, Environment and Economic Growth (proceedings of the 2010, NAEC
Conference). Book Merit Publishers, Agodi Gate, Ibadan.
Adeola Adenikinju (2010): 'Workable Practices of Oil Dependent Countries'. Journal of Economic
Management. Volume7, No. 1, January, 2010.
African-Economic Outlook, 2013
Agebede Moses Oyeyemi (2013): The Growth Implications of Oil price shock in Nigeria. Journal of
Emerging Trends In Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS).
Akinlo Olayinka Olufisayo (2009): Key Issues in Nigerian Development in the 21st Century. Journal of
Economics and Social Studies, Volume 6.
AllAfrica.com: Nigeria: Government's Transformation Agenda - Fixing PPMC Supply/ Distribution
Network (Page 1 of 2) by Nwaozuzu Chijoke. Retrieved on April 22, 2014
Anthony Enisan Akinlo (2012): 'How Important is Oil in Nigeria's Economic Growth'? Journal
of Sustainable Development Vol. 5, No. 4; April 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v5n4p165
Ayadi O.F (2005): Oil Price Fluctuations and the Nigerian Economy. OPEC Review. Volume 6, 199-217.
Ayodele Ikotun (2011): Power and Politics in Nigeria: The Missing Link (a Political Economy Approach)
Barnabas Obasaju (2010): the Impact of oil growth on the Nigerian economy (M.sc paper). Unilag,
Edward N. Wolff (2009): Poverty and Income Distribution (2nd Edition). John Wiley and Sons Limited.
West Sussex, U.K.
"Theory." Microsoft Encarta 2009 [DVD]. Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation, 2008.
Engineer C.J. Adiele (2009): 'Technology, Development and Productivity: A Holistic Approach'.
Ezonbi Buomo (2010): A periscope on the Impact of Oil Development on Agricultural Industry in
Nigeria. Journal of Economic and Management Studies.3( 1).
Frank Asogwah and Potian Okoli (2008): Economic Crimes and National Development. Institute of
Development Studies, University of Nigeria, Enugu Campus.
Funso Omotoso (2011): Understanding President Jaonathan's Oil and Gas Reforms. Netview Books,
Hamilton J.D (2003): 'What is an Oil Shock'? Journal of Econometrics (113), 363-398.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu- 'Development Indicators'- retrieved on 30-04-2014.
http://www.doublegist.com/marketing-petroleum-products-nigeria-problems - retrieved on 22-04-2014
http://www.Investopedia.com on 'Economic Diversification'. Retrieved on
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/oil-refinery.asp -retrieved on Tuesday 22-04-2014
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/resource-curse.asp" retrieved on 30-10-2013.
http://www.npc.gov.ng/vault/Transformation.pdf- Retrieved on Tuesday, 22-04-2014.
http://www.reubenabati.com.ng/NIGERIA-MUST-DIVERSIFY-ITS-ECONOMY. retrieved on September 5th 2013, Thursday
Ismaila Badmus, Miracle Olanrewaju Oyewola and Richard Olayinola Fagbenle (2012): 'A review of
performance Appraisals of Nigerian Federal Government-Owned Refineries.' Journal of Energy and Power Engineering. Volume 4, page 47-52.
J.C. Anyanywu, A. Oyefusi, H. Oaikhenan & F.A. Dimowo (1997): The Structure of the Nigerian
Economy. Joanee Educational Publishers, Onitsha, Nigeria.
J.Y Fasagba (2007): 'An Assessment of the Liberalization of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry',
Maiduguri Journal of Arts and Social Sciences. 5(1) June 2007.
Job Dangana (2011): Building a New Nigeria; The Right Approach. Volume 6. First Pyramid Digital
Publishing Co.Ltd, Kaduna.
John Weiss (2011): The Economics of Industrial Development. Routledge, Oxon.
Jonathan Di John (2010): The 'Resource Curse': Theory and Evidence (ARI). Real Instituto
Joy Ogwu (2006) in Obiageli Ezekwesili (2006): Solid Minerals: A Strategic Asset for National
Development. NIIA Lecture Series. No. 87.
Kevin Thurston (2002): 'From Boom, Through Decline, To Failure. A Post-September 11th
Examination of the Middle Eastern Rentier State. The Bologna Center Journal of International Affairs.
Lawrence H. Summers (1992): The Challenge of Development: Some Lessons of History for
sub-Saharan Africa. NIIA Lecture Series. No. 74
Linus C. Nnamani (2009): Politics of Development and Underdevelopment. John-Jacobs Classic
Publishers Ltd, Enugu.
M.I Ijiomah (2002): An Anatomy of Development and Retrogression. Smartlink Publishers, Enugu,
Meghnad Desai (2002): The Debt of Development: Beyond the Question of Price. NIIA Lecture
Series. No. 80
Michael Obadan (1983); Prospects for Diversification in Nigeria's Export Trade in Annual Conference of
the Nigerian Economic Society. Heinemann Press, Ibadan. Page 33-35, unpublished emass Press.
Michel P. Todaro and Stephen Smith (2011): Economic Development (Eleventh Edition).
Pearson Education Limited, England.
Ministry of Information and Technology (2012): Mid Term Report of the Transformation
Agenda (May 2011-May 2013): Taking Stock, Moving Forward.
Nkomo J.C (2006): The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on Southern African countries. Journal of Energy
Research in Southern Africa. 17 (1), 10-17.
Obiageli Ezekwesili (2006): 'Solid Minerals: A strategic Asset for National Development'. NIIA Lecture
Series, No. 87.
Olorunfemi Sola (2010): The Impact of Shocks in World Crude Oil Price on Nigerian economy. Akungba
Journal of Management 2(1). April 2010.
Oluwasuji C. Olawole (2010): Nigeria's Underdevelopmental Crisis: The Unending Issues and Prospects.
Akungba Journal of Management. (2)1, April 2010.
Onyemaechi Augustine Eke (2010): Politics, Oil Wealth and Crisis of Development: Nigeria's fifty years
of Oil Stain and Infamy. Will Rose and Apple seed publishing Coy, Abakaliki, Nigeria
Otonti Nduka (2006): The Roots of African Development and Other Essays. Spectrum books Ltd,
Professor Chukwuma C. Soludo (2006): 'Can Nigeria be China of Africa'?
S. Bawa and J.A Mohammmed (2007): Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth in Nigeria.
Central Bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial review. Volume 45, No. 3, September 2007.
Shamija T.A (2006): Politics of Development: the African Perspective.
Academic Press Limited, Benue.
The Guardian Newspaper, May 2 2014.
Thomas Krabacher, Ezekiel Kalipeni and Azzedine Layachi (2011): Global Studies: Africa. 13th Edition.
Mc. Graw Hill Companies, Inc. New York.
Toks Ero (2014): 'Nigeria is 100! And so what'?. The Punch, Friday, March 7, 2014).
Tolu Lawal and Abe Oluwatoyin (2011): National Development in Nigeria: Issues, Challenges and
Prospects. Journal of Public Administration and Policy Research. Volume 3 (9), pp 237-241. November, 2011. DOI: 10.5897/JPAPR11.012
Uchendu Eugene Chigbu. Newswatch Magazine. February, 2014.
Morse, S. (2007). Development indicators and indices. Retrieved from http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/151714
Table 1:1 REAL GDP GROWTH RATE 2009-2014
Source: Global Finance, Trading Economics
From Table 1.1 which presents the data on Nigeria Real GDP growth rate percentage between 2009 and 2014, it can be discerned that Nigeria has maintained a trajectory of a single-digit GDP growth; which is however impressive, as albeit it experienced a decline in 2013 of 6.99% from 7.6% in 2012, the GDP growth rate accelerated in 2014 especially after the rebasing activity. The GDP is the sum total value of goods and services produced in a given economy, which can be expressed by adding across all the sectors therein (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014). A double digit GDP growth rate as attested by the Minister of Finance, Ngozi Nkojo-IWeala happens historically on rare occasions and accordingly, growth rates that fall between the range of 5-10% are regarded as 'strong or robust', which shows Nigeria is on the positive side of performing well economically as it has been able to attain currently a GDP of 7.72%.
Table 1.2 GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)
YEAR FIGURE ($)
The table 1.2 above depicts that the GDP Per Capita has increased subsequently from 2009 to 2013. Before the Jonathan Administration came in the GDP Per Capita was only $2017.73, but subsequently it has accelerated which shows the macroeconomic environment of the country has apparently thrived well and there's a slight increase in the distribution of income as the GDP Per Capita is now currently at $2293.54 as at 2013.
Table 1.3: NIGERIA'S HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) 2005-2012)
From the data shown in Table 3, though the HDI increased slightly subsequently from 2005-2012, Nigeria nevertheless hasn't really done well in terms of her HDI as country's that score below 1 or have an HDI closer to zero indicate greater distance from achieving factors like improved standard of living for the citizens, more access to education and better health opportunities, while those whose HDI are closer to 1 indicates greater achievement which is relative to the maximum attainable on the variables that comprise the index and thus a higher level of human development (Cypher & Dietz, 2009).
Table 1.4: NIGERIA'S GDP (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
YEAR FIGURE (USD)
Source: www.tradingeconomics.com, Business Day
From the Table above, it can be interpreted that Nigeria witnessed a drastic increase in her GDP from 262.602 billion dollars in 2013 to a whooping $509 billion. This was obtainable as a result of the recent rebasing exercise carried out in April 2014 which added other sectors that were formally omitted. This made Nigeria to surpass South Africa as the largest economy in Africa and is a positive sign for Nigeria in gradually drawing closer to meeting its Vision 20:2020 of becoming amongst the top 20 economies by 2020.
Table 1.5: NIGERIA'S GDP GROWTH RATE (% Change in GDP)
% CHANGE IN GDP
As an affirmation that Nigeria has experienced an improvement in its macroeconomic indicator, the above table shows an increase in the percentage of the country's GDP from 6.99% in 2013 to 7.72% in 2014, which is in line with the goal of the transformation agenda in upgrading Nigeria's economy which is an incentive to attract foreign investors.
Table 1.6: NIGERIA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (2009-2012)
YEAR % OF THE LABOR FORCE
The statistics in Table 6 shows a negative macroeconomic trend of an upsurge in the rate of unemployment in the country. Scholars have attributed such situation of experiencing an improvement in the GDP without a corresponding improvement in human or capital development; in this case of an increase in unemployment, as experiencing economic growth without economic development. However, this problem as attested by the Federal Ministry of Finance is as a result of the increase or growth in the active population yearly flooding the labor market with insufficient job vacancies. The Transformation Agenda having taken note of this problem has expressed intentions of putting in more aggressive efforts in creating more job opportunities and as at 2013 an addition of 1.6 million jobs were created in solving this persistent problem.
Table 1.7: POPULATION OF NIGERIA (2009-2013)
YEAR FIGURE (MILLIONS)
Nigeria as shown above has experienced an increase in its population figure, however, a dilemma faced here is the prevalent uneven distribution of income and high rate of unemployment especially on the part of the young or active population.
Table 1.8: NIGERIA'S INVESTMENT (GROSS FIXED %)
Table 1.9: TREND OF NIGERIA'S PUBLIC DEBT/ GDP RATIO (2000-2013)
YEAR DEBT-GDP RATIO
Source: Federal Ministry of Finance
Despite Nigeria's infrastructure deficit which is still undergoing construction under the Transformation Agenda, it has been noted to have a low Debt-GDP % compared to other advanced countries with world class infrastructure and industrial economies. In the report released by the Federal Ministry of Finance, it was noted that Nigeria's Debt-to GDP was about 19% in 2012 as seen in the Table 9 above which is surprisingly far lower than other rich industrial and infrastructure advanced countries such as Brazil whose Debt-GDP is 65.49%, India 64.60% and Americas, 105%. This is an impressive improvement on the part of Nigeria who formerly used to be burdened with a debt of $36 billion which was about 50% of the GDP that was majorly used to finance infrastructure projects that were barely successful and in other cases not successful. The bad debt profile had largely constrained economic growth in the country up till 2005 when it was cancelled by the Paris Club and ever since, the government has resorted to a course of domestic borrowing to finance its recurrent expenditure rather than borrowing internationally (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014). Another reason for the low Debt-GDP ratio is that the government under the Jonathan regime has embraced a more effective and efficient model for financing infrastructure project that obtains from the Transformation Agenda via the PPP initiative; where private investors are allowed to partake in infrastructural projects and access innovative financing models and this has ultimately spurred a positive credit rating from different international rating agencies that has accorded Nigeria to become one of the top foreign investment destinations in Africa (FEederal Ministry of Finance, 2014), which until now has been threatened by the high rate of insecurity via terrorist attacks perpetuated by the Boko Haram sect in the country especially in 2014.
Table 1.10: Structure of the Nigerian Economy (Percent of the GDP at current factor, 1974-2004)
Oil Sector GDP 60 29.1 39.3 48.2 44.6 48.2
Non-oil Sector GDP 94.0 70.9 60.7 51.8 55.4 51.8
Agriculture 41.3 20.6 29.7 26.3 26.4 16.6
Industry 7.8 16.4 7.4 4.5 4.8 8.7
Services 45.0 33.8 23.6 21.0 24.2 26.5
Sources: World Bank/ DFID (2006)
The table above shows that for the stated years 1970-2004, oil made or contributed to a significant part of the country's GDP which justified the notion that Nigeria was a mono cultural economy, especially as it made up a very huge percent of the government's revenue. The country's economy is evidently structured into two broad sectors; oil and noon-oil sectors; where the oil sector is characterized with a high level of productivity, modern technology and high per capita income of $4,000 but however externally focused and has very low linkages to the rest of the economy thus contributing little to the growth; while the non-oil sector on the other hand is characterized with low productivity and competitiveness, limited technological advancement and low average per capita income of less than $400 (Akinlo, 2009)
Table 1.11: Nigeria: Sources of GDP Growth (in percent 2012-2013)
(1st Quarter) 2013
(2nd Quarter) 2013
Overall GDP growth rate 6.58 6.56 6.18 6.81
Oil GDP growth -0.91 -0.54 -1.15 -0.53
Non-oil GDP growth 7.88 7.89 7.36 7.95
Agriculture 3.97 4.14 4.52 5.08
Finance & Insurance 4.05 3.61 5.18 4.15
Wholesale & Retail 9.61 8.22 7.44 9.03
Telecommunications 31.83 24.53 22.12 24.42
Manufacturing 7.55 8.41 6.81 8.16
Building & Construction 12.58 15.66 14.90 14.30
Business/other services 9.69 8.63 11.33 9.26
Real Estate 10.41 10.06 10.88 10.35
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (Federal Ministry of Finance)
The table above clearly shows that unlike the data shown in table 10 where oil was a significant contributor to the GDP, here there has been a change, where oil has drastically reduced in its GDP growth rate and contribution to the GDP, with the non-oil sector taking over. As the quarters advanced in 2012-2013, oil recorded a subsequent decline in GDP growth rate, whereas the non-oil sectors other than finance &insurance, Business/other services and Real estate witnessed a slight increase. What can be concluded thus is that the Transformation Agenda has practically succeeded in its ongoing effort to diversify the economy, as oil which used to predominantly make up the country's mono cultural economy has declined in its contribution, which shows other sectors have improved in contributing more quota to the economy; hence a diversified economy.
EVALUATION OF THE GOODLUCK JONATHAN'S TRANSFORMATION AGENDA
The transformation agenda according to the Ministry of Information and Communication is a medium term development strategy that has been planned to be implemented within the period of 2011-2015, a span of 5 years. Accordingly, the Transformation Agenda has been said to be 'the bedrock upon which the federal government's priority policies, programmes and projects are being implemented to ensure growth and development of the Nigerian economy and to improve the standard of living of the Nigerian people.'
According to Alao & Alao (2013), the Transformation Agenda has been designed to touch every aspect of the country's socio-economic and political life which includes key areas summarized to be job creation, good governance, agriculture, security, the power, educational and health sectors (NPC, 2011).
The Transformation Agenda which was designed to transform the Nigerian economy in a bid to meet the future needs of the Nigerian people have its plans to be strategically scrutinized or kept in close watch by a presidential committee endorsed by President Goodluck Jonathan and also to be assisted by technical experts from the public and private sectors (NPC, 2011).Accordingly, their mandated duties as outlined by the National Planning Commission include:
1. Identification of the key policies, programmes and projects to be delivered within the next four to five years.
2. Phasing the projects and programmes to ensure that they inform the administration on future budget proposals during the period of 2011-2015.
3. To propose a suitable monitoring mechanism for the identified projects and programmes including regular presentations by ministers to the Federal Government on their relevant areas of activity.
The Presidential Committee which was formally inaugurated on Thursday 17th 2011 has its honorable members to include;
1. Honorable Minister/ Deputy Chairman of NPC- Chairman
2. Honorable Minister of Finance - Member
3. Honorable Minister of Agriculture - Member
4. Honorable Minister of Niger Delta Region - Member
5. Honorable Minister of Works - Member
6. Honorable Minister of Aviation - Member
7. Honorable Minister of FCT - Member
8. Chief Economic Adviser to the President
on infrastructure - Member
9. Special Assistant to the President on Economic Matters- Member (NPC, 2011).
On this ground an assessment or evaluation would be made on the achievements the Transformation Agenda has been able to attain in some key areas which would show if Nigeria is on the right track to achieving a vision of experiencing development and economic growth as well as to know if the country has a high tendency of becoming one of the top twenty economies of the world by 2020. Also, relevant to this research work and in a bid to answer the research questions, the achievements that have been attained in the petroleum sector, the efforts of the government in spurring a diversification of the economy especially via the agricultural sector as well as the challenges or shortcomings impeding the smooth and successful implementation of the transformation would also be assessed thence.
THE GOALS OF THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA
Before the achievements of the transformation agenda as well as its challenges are scrutinized, it would be logical to assess the goals in order to be aware of the purpose of the transformation agenda as well as subsequently know or determine if the government is making headway in its efforts so far in transforming Nigeria. The goals of the transformation agenda which is consistent with the First National Implementation Plan as well as designed to speed up the realization of the Vision 20:2020, are being inspired by the desire of the current government administration to tackle rising unemployment, infrastructure deficits, inconsistency in policies and programmes as well as incongruous capital budget submissions by Ministries, Departments Agencies of the government (Mid Term Report, 2013). As outlined in the publication by the Ministry of Information and Communication in the year 2013, the key goals of the Transformation Agenda include;
1. To attain a strong, inclusive and non-inflationary economic growth
2. To spur employment generation, poverty alleviation, and sustained improvement in the well being of Nigerians
3. Value re-orientation that targets a robust anti-corruption campaign.
In a bid to achieve these aforementioned goals of the transformation agenda, attention has been focused on priority sectoral issues that have been grouped into four thematic areas (Ministry of Information and Communication, 2013) which include;
i.) Governance, that would be achieved through public service reforms, security, anti-corruption and foreign policy/ economic diplomacy
ii.) Human Capital Development, which focuses on areas like education, health, labor and productivity as well as women and youth development and would have policies directed towards accelerating enrollment in primary schools, provide educational infrastructures, increase access to educational institutions, reduction in pupil-teacher ratio, enhancement of the competence of teachers and other educational personnel and in terms of health, the National Strategic Health Development Plan (NSHDP) is being conceived as the springboard for a vastly improved health delivery care system that would facilitate the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
iii.) Infrastructure, whose capture here is on the Power sector, Transportation (roads, rail, inland waterways, aviation and seaports) as well as water (for irrigation and industries).
iv.) Real Sector, the focus of the Transformation Agenda here is on Agriculture, Manufacturing, Oil and Gas sectors that are particularly significant in boosting the economy of the country if well developed; as Makun Labaran, the Minister for Information and Communication pointed out that low private sector investment, low productivity, lack of competitiveness, low value addition, poor value chain as well as shortage of skilled man power had hampered the drivers of the real sector.
Achievements of the transformation agenda would be assessed in the following areas:
1. Macroeconomic achievements
3. Human capital and social development
4. Good governance
5. Productive/ real sector
' In the Mid Term Report of the Transformation Agenda of 2012, it was recorded that the real GDP Growth had been highly driven or accelerated by non-oil activities which was an average of 7.01% in 2011-2012 and eight out of the fourteen broad sectors their growth targets. In terms of the nominal GDP, it had grown from $166.53 billion in 2009 to $243.99 billion and $257.42 billion respectively in 2011 and 2012. Nigeria was also noted to have impressively experienced an improvement in its global GDP ranking from 44th position in 2010 to 36th in 2012.
' In the external sector, as stated in the Mid Term Report, despite the global meltdown the sector had performed relatively well as the foreign reserves experienced an upsurge from US $32.64 billion in 2011 to US $43.83 billion in 2012 and US $48.88 billion in March 2013. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) according to the report had increased from $6 billion to $8.9 billion which showed a significant 46.07% increase which has been interpreted to be an indication of a positive investment climate that attracted foreign investment.
' In a report released by the Federal Ministry of Finance on 'the Response to the 50 Questions on Nigeria's economy posed by the House of Representatives Committee on Finance' in January 2014, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the Coordinating Minister of Finance of the Nigerian economy, revealed that the state of the macroeconomic environment which has currently been stable has spurred a strong performance observed across the various sectors. According to the report, inflation has remained in single digits since the end of December 2013 at 8%, while the exchange rate of the naira to dollar has sustained its 'target-band' of N155-160 relatively to a dollar and remarkably Nigeria's budget deficit which is placed at 1.85% of GDP is noted to be one of the lowest in the world. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Report as cited by the Federal Ministry of Finance (2014) reported that at the end of the fiscal year of 2013, a quarterly GDP growth of 6.5%, 6.18% and 6.81% was reported in the first quarter (Q1), Second quarter (Q2) and Third quarter (Q3) respectively.
' According to the Federal Ministry of Finance, Nigeria's economy as reported by recognized international institutions such as the African Development Bank (ADB), the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is one of the fastest growing economies amongst the emerging markets and as at 2012, Nigeria rose to become the 13th fastest growing economy globally and the 5th amongst selected sub-Saharan countries. Credible sources such as the NBS have attested that the non-oil sectors have been the main drivers of growth in Nigeria such as the agriculture, manufacturing, real estate, finance and insurance, building and construction sectors, businesses as well as other services.
As analyzed by the Federal Ministry of Finance, the government has been able to attain improvement in Nigeria's economic growth by:
1. Fostering a stable macroeconomic environment via ensuring that inflation is kept considerably low, exchange rates are stable and that there is prudence and discipline in the level of borrowing by the government.
2. Facilitating investments in the country in a bid to improve the country's infrastructure via investing in sectors such as power, roads, rail, aviation etc.
3. Provision of appropriate incentives to support investments in the country that include waivers, tax concession to support private sector investments which is been done on a sector-wide basis.
' REBASING ACTIVITY: Nigeria was noted to have successfully rebased its economy where the new GDP figure was released on Sunday April 6th, 2014 (Business Day Newspaper, 2014). According to the Business Day Newspaper (2014), this activity was carried out by sampling 851, 628 companies and 46 economic activities which correspondingly altered the GDP of Nigeria to a high $509 billion equivalent to N80 trillion. According to Taylor (2014), Nigeria's rebased GDP has made it surpass South Africa as the biggest economy in Africa whose GDP was placed at $370.3 billion at the end of 2013, as industries that were not previously counted such as Telecommunications, Information Technology, Music, Online Sales, airlines etc. have now been included. However, Taylor (2014) mentioned that South Africa's GDP per capita significantly remains a bit larger where according to the CIA World Fact book 2013 as cited by Taylor (2014), while Nigeria's GDP Per Capita is $2,800, South Africa on the other hand is $11,500 which can be explained to be as a result of the large level of Nigeria's population which is three times more than South Africa and therefore on a per capita basis, South Africa's GDP is three times more than South Africa. In another report that captured the Mid Term Report of Goodluck Jonathan Administration's achievements, its statistics showed that Nigeria has become the favored destination of investors coming into Africa; where the country has recorded a high investment of $8.4 billion- $9.30 billion which is a progress as regards the governments to attract $20 billion worth of foreign investments within three years.
HUMAN CAPITAL AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT ACHIEVEMENTS
As viewed in the Mid Term Report (2013: 194), 'Human Capital refers to the stock of competences, skills, knowledge and personality attributes embodied in the ability of labor, which enables it to produce goods and services. The effectiveness of human capital development is a critical success factor in the Transformation Agenda of the present civilian administration.'
Accordingly, the education and health sectors remain critical in human and capital development which has made the government develop robust strategic which has been an area of aspiration of the Transformation Agenda.
EDUCATION SECTOR: the Mid Term Report (2013: 194) correctly explained that 'a country's ability to remain competitive in a knowledge driven world is dependent on the development of the right skills at different stages of human development and education is a key component for achieving this goal' and therefore the sector's significance in improving the productivity of the citizens through imparting the right skills as well as empowerment of the country's youth with relevant knowledge at the 'basic and post basic levels, irrespective of ethnicity, gender or disability issues', can't be overemphasized. The government has thus succeeded in formulating and implementing strategies to promote Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) which would foster the impartation of knowledge and skills to the citizens 'on the platform of cutting edge technology to enable them contribute meaningfully to mechanized agriculture, natural resource development, the export based industry and entrepreneurship' (Mid Term Report, 2013: 194). On this ground, according to the Report, the government has been able to herald a capacity building on TVET for some tertiary institutions staffs overseas, rehabilitate laboratories and work spaces in Tertiary institutions and colleges as well as promote the complete access to education at all levels. Notably, the government as analyzed in the Mid Term Report was able to attain some significant achievements in the education sector amongst which are:
1. Institutionalization of the Early Childhood Care Development and Education (ECCDE) where all state governments where all state governments have been required to establish early childhood centers in order to provide more opportunities for children to be accommodated into the school system, reduce the number of children out of school as well as afford them the privilege to enjoy certain aspects of early childhood education.
2. Creation of the Almajiri Education Programme in a bid to resolve the situation of out of school Almajiri children which is high in the Northern part of Nigeria. Here traditional Tsangaya/ Quranic schools have been integrated into the formal education system.
3. An initiation of a national campaign on Access to Basic Education across the 6 geo-political zones in order to decline the number of children out of school.
4. An implementation of Girl's Education Programme which was initiated to improve the number of girls experiencing education where the government had succeeded in constructing special girls school in 3 states of the federation.
5. Establishment of 2 new federal universities in order to enhance accessibility to higher education and ensuring the youths are given the privilege to develop the skills and potentialities which would spur the drive in different sectors of the economies
6. The government has made available over N3.6 billion for the special funding of education which was disbursed to the states in 2012 via the Universal Basic Education Commission (UBEC).
7. N76.7 billion was also provided by the government as Tertiary Trust Fund(TET Fund) to tertiary institutions to facilitate the provision of infrastructure and other facilities.
8. The government has also succeeded in refurbishing and equipping 5 federal and state polytechnics with modern laboratory equipment to encourage the TVET.
9. Scholarships have been awarded to over 5000 staff of Nigerian Tertiary Institutions and 100 beneficiaries of the president's Special Scholarship for Innovation and Development (PRESS ID) have been selected for training in 25 universities in the world.
HEALTH SECTOR: the Mid Term Report analyzed that in terms of the achievements of the MDGs intervention in health, phenomenal progress have been made in the decline of under-5 children mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) from 157 in 2008 to 141 in 2011 and impressively, the percentage of children living with fever that are under five have been appropriately treated with anti-malaria drugs have increased from 33.2% in 2008 to 54.8% in 2012. In essence, Nigeria under the Jonathan administration has been able to surpass the target of the reduction of maternity mortality rate which per 100,000 live births dropped from 545 in 2008 to 487 in 2011 and also was estimated to plummet further in 2012with the improvement in health related intervention in the country during the considered period where the Transformation Agenda's target of reducing the mortality rate fell to 273 in 2013. In terms of drinking water, an improvement has been recorded to improve slightly from 55.8% in 2008 to 57% in 2012 (Mid Term Report, 2013).
JOB CREATION: Different initiatives have been embarked upon to reverse the trend of high level of unemployment in the country (Mid Term Report, 2013) and some of the achievements recorded by the current's administration in tackling the issue of unemployment in the country include:
1. The creation of the Public Works and Women/Youths Employment (PWWYE) which targeted a creation of 370,000 jobs in the country in 2011
2. The YouWIN (Youths Enterprise with Innovation in Nigeria) which was launched in 2011 and aims at providing jobs for 80,000-110,000 unemployed Nigerian youths and is a collaboration of the Ministry of Finance with the Ministry of Communication Technology.
3. The Conditional Grant Scheme in the state and local governments launched in 2011 had been able to achieve successes in constructing , renovating and equipping 1,646 health facilities, construction of 4,47s water facilities, granting a conditional cash transfer to 39, 567 households, payment to 2,260 new village health workers, building and renovation of 742 classroom blocks and procurement of 1,214,271 textbooks.
4. The government had launched an access to micro credit in a bid to reduce poverty in Nigeria via social assistance programmes such as Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT) or target waivers/ subsidies for education or health practiced by a few states.
5. 1.6 million jobs have been created across the country in the past 12 months as at January 2014 (NBS as cited by the Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014:5) and sectors that had experienced strong growth such as the agricultural, oil and gas, manufacturing, housing and construction as well as SME sectors, had created jobs (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014). Notably, in agriculture as stated in the report, over 8 million metric tonnes (MT) of additional food was attested to have been produced in the country in the past year which reduced Nigeria's import bill from N1.1 trillion in 2011 to N648 billion in 2012 and also 250,000 farmers and youths that were employed across 10 Northern states had succeeded in producing 1.1 million MT of dry season rice (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014).
6. In the manufacturing sector, new jobs have been created have been created across the country, where in an area such as the Onne Oil and Gas Free Zone had created an estimate of about 30,000 job opportunities (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014).
PRODUCTIVE SECTOR ACHIEVEMENTS
The productive sector which is being attested to be a major driver to the growth of any economy has been tagged as being crucial to the attainment of the government's transformation agenda in general and is indispensable for achieving the projected average GDP growth rate of 7.7% as it is responsible for the production of goods and services, generation of employment, promotion of linkages and enhancement of value addition along the value chains of production which links Nigeria with the international economic community via the platform of import-export activities (Mid Term Report, 2013).
The sub-sectors under this productive sector include the Oil and Gas sector, Agriculture, Trade and Commerce, Culture, Tourism, Entertainment, Manufacturing, Solid Minerals and Metals, Water resources and Science and Technology. However, under this sector the achievements to be assessed would be exclusively streamlined to that of the Petroleum or Oil and Gas sector and the Agricultural sector.
OIL AND GAS SECTOR
This sector had accounted for over 95% of export earnings and apparently 85% of the government's revenue from 2011-2012 and contributed 4.8% and 13.76% to the GDP respectively in 2011 and 2012 (Mid Term Report, 2013). Also there has been a significant increase in the oil reserve from36.042 bbs in 2011 to 37.1119 bbs in 2012 as well as a drastic reduction from in the rate of gas flaring 24.3 and 25.3% in 2010 and 2011 respectively to 20% in 2012 (Mid Term Report, 2013).
The Transformation Watch (2013) further gave a breakdown of the achievements of the Transformation Agenda in this sector which include;
1. An introduction of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) which is a new legal framework for governing Nigeria's oil and gas industry which encourages a platform for more investment in the oil and gas industry of the country as well as ensuring that the management of the petroleum sector is more commercially driven with higher local participation in the industry'
2. The government has been able to commence the implementation of the Domestic Gas Supply Obligation (DGSO) Scheme which has made it possible for the supply of adequate quantity and quality of gas by oil and gas producers to all the active power plants in the last one year.
3. The government in a trajectory to attaining the Transformation Agenda goals as well as the Vision 20:2020 has developed a framework for bringing on stream other projects such as Egina, Oton, Bonga NW Fields etc. which will accelerate the country's crude oil production from a tune of 4 million barrels per day as the envisaged benchmark.
4. The government's effort at spurring a local or indigenous participation of citizens in the oil and gas industry has yielded the establishment of an oil terminal facility called the Ebok terminal that was established by an indigenous company with a recorded daily crude oil production of 7,000 bpd as well as a plateau production of 50,000 bpd at full capacity.
5. A Gas Revolution has been launched by the President which intends to develop industries that work with oil and gas derivations
6. Jonathan has proposed the establishment of a two-world scale petrochemical and fertilizer companies as well as five fertilizer blending plant, a methanol plant and a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distribution plant.
7. A framework for local content has been developed in the oil and gas sector which is capable of creating over 300,000 direct and indirect jobs per annum.
8. The president has forwarded the PIB to be passed into law by the National Assembly where $680 billion dollars would be added to the country's GDP and also the fuel subsidy regime had been subjected to 'forensic scrutiny' by several agencies and committees set up by the president; particularly the Aig-Imoukuede Presidential Committee on the 'verification and reconciliation of subsidy claims and payments' which led to the arrest and arraignment of some individuals and firms by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC ) (the Presidential Mid Term Report).
IMPROVEMENT IN THE CAPACITY OF OIL REFINING/ REFINERIES IN NIGERIA
According to the Ministry of Information and Information (2012), the Transformation Agenda in a bid to revamp the jeopardized oil refineries or improve their capacities had recorded the following achievements:
1. It initiated the resuscitation of the Fluid Catalytic Unit (FCCU) in Kaduna refinery after 8 years and currently it has been attested to producing at 60% of installed capacity and has the potential to attain 70%.
2. There is currently an ongoing rehabilitation of the Port-Harcourt refineries which are to meet at least 70% of the country's needs which will save about $3.5 billion of government's foreign exchange as well enhance payment of taxes to the treasury.
3. The Public Private Partnership (PPP) initiative has been developed which is embedded in the PIB, which when approved would facilitate the funding and investments in projects such as the Ajaokuta-Abuja-Kano Gas Project, Gas Supply Pipeline to PHCN Delta and the Obiafu/Obrikum-Obe Gas Pipeline.
4. As a remarkable achievement of the Transformation Agenda in upgrading the oil refineries in Nigeria, the elegant Minister of Petroleum, Mrs. Allison Diezani Madueke has made efforts in addressing the facilities that are in a most critical condition; like the Aba product line which had been in an inoperable state as a result of the illegal activities of pipeline vandalism in the country has been re-established and rehabilitated, the Warri-Benin Product line has been recovered ,while the Benin depot has been re-commissioned (Nwaozuzu, 2014).
5. Aggressive Refinery Revitalization and Domestic production of petroleum products: the Warri, Kaduna and Port-Harcourt refineries have been confirmed to be now operational as major repairs on product evacuation infrastructure has been completed in due time, which has fostered the availability of pipelines as well as a reduction in the dependence on road trucking as well as an increase in the utilization of depots that used to be at prior times idle which are located in Ore, Ilorin, Benin, Kano and Jos (Federal Ministry of Information and Communication).
6. The oil refining sector was targeted to attain an increase of oil reserves from 36 billion in 2010 to 50 billion barrels in 2013 as well as an increase in oil production to 2.31 million bpd and 2.48 million bpd in 2011 and 2013 respectively (Mid Term Report).
7. The Federal Government under Jonathan administration has been able to implement its plans of constructing three new proposed Greenfield refineries in Lagos, Kogi and Bayelsa states with the rationale of completely eliminating the occurrence of product importation, whereas the Ministry of Petroleum Resources has been mandated to mediate in order to ease off the persistent artificially induced gap in the supply and distribution of petroleum products in some parts of the country (Ministry of Information and Communication, 2012).
8. The Transformation Agenda has succeeded in been able to maintain the production of crude oil including the condensate which ranges 2.30 million bpd regardless of the activities of oil bunkering and Vandalism (Ministry of Information and Communication, 2012).
9. The Port-Harcourt and Warri refineries have been attested to be currently undergoing rehabilitation to meet at least 70% of a country's needs which would save $3.5 billion foreign exchange.
10. Impressively, there has been a confirmation that there has been an evacuation or disappearance of long queues for fuel in the country, unlike before when persistent fuel queues were the regular order of the day. There has been a drastic change for good spurred by the Jonathan's Transformation Agenda , where 12 months after resuming office , motorists have been affirmed to get easier access to fuel in filling stations from every part of the country rather than from road side hawkers (Federal Ministry of Information and Communication, 2011).
11. In the upstream sector, the April 2012 commissioning of the Urban Deep Offshore Field has increased crude oil production capacity by180,000 barrels per day and the government has continued to support the National Oil Company, NNPC by assigning 55% equity in 8 divested blocks which has resulted in an increase in reserves from 350 million barrels to 2.1 Billion barrels production (Jonathan's Administration Compendium).
There is already an aggressive pursuit of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda where agriculture is no longer seen as a development programme but as a business one can generate wealth and create jobs for millions of Nigerian youths and in this sectoral transformation many reforms have been implemented (Jonathan's Compendium). Alao and Alao (2013) captured that the Agenda aimed at ensuring that food production becomes sufficient to meet the needs of the nation as well as to enhance generation of National and Social wealth. Some of the achievements of this sector recorded in the Mid Term Report include:
1. With a target of securing 900,000 MT of dried cassava chip export contracts by 2015, 2.2 million MT was achieved in 2012 which is 1.3 million MT ahead of the planned target.
2. Within 2012, 8 million MT of food was added to domestic food supply which was 70% above the 20 million MT target by 2015 which only requires a production of 5 million MT annually.
3. There has been a supply of over 1.3 million MT of high quality cassava flour policy in 2012.
4. 40% substitution of high quality cassava for wheat has been achieved through research and collaboration with the IITA and Federal Institute for Industrial Research; where the government has also established the Cassava Broad Development Fund to be funded through the tariff on wheat flour; 385 master bakers had been trai8ned across the six geo-political zones in the country.
5. There has been a significant decline in the importation of wheat to Nigeria from a 4,051,000 MT in 2010 to 3,700,000 MT in 2012.
6. Out of an estimated 1,760,364 MT of paddy rice production in 2012/2013, at least 1.1 million MT was harvested from 264,000 ha of half season rice in 2012 across the 10 Northern states using the food production plan.
7. 1.5 million Farmers have been given access to subsidized seeds and fertilizers via mobile phones within 120 days of the development and deployment of the e-wallet system. Additionally, there has been an increase in the percentage of farmers that have accessed subsidized seeds and fertilizers from 11% under the old system to 70% under the new e-wallet system. With a savings of N25 billion made by the Federal Government in 2012, there has been a growth of the number of seed companies from 1 at the start of the current administration to 70.
8. There has been a registration of a total of 42 million and 20 million farmers in 2012 and 2012 respectively out of the estimated 14 million farmers.
9. There has been a commitment of over $8 billion to existing and planned investment in Nigeria's agriculture, agribusiness and food industry by the private sector during the review period.
10. The non-oil exports have continued to experience a significant year-on-year growth, with agriculture accounting for 75% of the total non-oil export revenue, while earnings increased by 759% respectively in 2012.
11. 2.2 million Jobs were created in 2012.
According to the Mid Term Report, infrastructure is key for economic growth and development as well as enhances production and competitiveness. The report had attributed lack of competiveness and low indices of development to inadequate infrastructure development and that the critical state of challenges in the delivery infrastructure has impacted negatively on investment and capital inflow into the country. The World Bank Study (2011) as cited in the Mid Term Report (2012:173) stated that Nigeria requires a capital investment of over US $14.2 billion annually over a period of 10 years including a routine maintenance and operating cost to close the wide or 'yawning' infrastructure gap. The report mentioned that the factors that had contributed to the deterioration of infrastructure include under investment, poor governance, poor maintenance culture, population explosion and neglect of urban and regional planning in the power and transportation sectors. However, solely the power sector would be assessed here
Some of the key achievements in the power sector as highlighted in the Ministry of Information and Communication Report include:
1. A superior management system of power supply and prevention of wild fluctuation in power has been put in place.
2. The Transformation Agenda has been able to conceptualize and plan a creation of 700kv super grid to boost the capacity of the national grid that will handle an increase in the power generated beyond the next decade.
3. The government has sworn in new, experienced and credible commissioners of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission who have commenced work on a multi-tariff order, who are to ensure that a commercial viability of the market is in place that would also favor the consumers that are poor in both urban and rural areas.
4. There has been an establishment of the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading plc (NBET) whose mandate is to purchase electricity generated by power producers on behalf of the distribution companies until they reach a considerable height of maturity and are credit worthy.
5. Independent power producers have been by the bulk traders to generate an addition of 6,000 megawatts by 2014.
6. It has been recorded that investors confidence have grown as up to 331 companies across the globe have expressed interests in investing in the state owned 11 distribution and 6 power generation companies that have been slated for privatization
7. The Federal Government has expressed commitment to workers rights and welfare by paying the N57 billion arrears monetary benefits to the PHCN workers that have been owed since 2003.
8. The FG has also shown interest of changing the status quo of relying solely on non-renewable sources of energy for power generation and has begun to consider the option of creating a renewable energy department to focus more attention on renewable sources of energy. In achieving this, a roadmap of the entire country was developed that has in details several 'potentially viable sites for the deployment of wind turbines for power generation'; for example on a remarkable note, a 10 megawatt Katsina project which is the first wind-farm project in Nigeria has been developed to accelerate the supply of electricity in the Northern region. The report mentioned that the rehabilitation and recovery of capacity in the existing generation plans and NIPP which is soon to come to stream, would proffer the power sector the chance to become greatly expanded to drive GDP growth so that Nigeria will generate more than the irreducible 40,000 megawatts needed to make the nation one of the worlsd's twenty largest economies by 2020.
According to Alao and Aloa (2011), in fostering good governance the current administration seeks to include programmes that encompass political governance, economic governance, corporate governance and effectiveness of instituitions as well as a focus on public service, security, the legislature, anti-corruption measures and institutions, the judiciary, economic co-ordination and support of private investment.
The policy thrust of governance in context to the transformation agenda as explained in the Mid Term Report is to 'maximize the benefits that citizens derive from governance through more effective and efficient use of public resources, proper financial management and fiscal prudence' and in the case of justice and the judiciary, the policy thrust aims at achieving a greater independence on the part of the judiciary as regards its funding as well as to improve its rendered services, eliminate all forms of corruption, and upgrade the level of professionalism in legal practice.
The achievements of the Transformation Agenda on good governance include:
1. The Progress Report (cited by Alao and Ala0, 2013: 59) of the Transformation Agenda policy on governance showed that various independent observers present during the 2011 general elections had observed that there was a major improvement in the country's democratic governance as Nigeria was noted to have successfully conducted a highly free and fair election and with 80% credibility (Dangana, 2011).
2. As an affirmation and commendation to the performance of Nigeria's commitment in promoting democracy and democratic values as part of its foreign policy objectives via its peacekeeping efforts spearheaded in countries like Mali, Guinea Bissau, Guinea Conakry, Libya, Cote d'Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea etc. Nigeria was honored in New York in September 2011 to become a member of the governing council of the Community of Democracies, an international organization (Alao & Alao, 2013).
3. In terms of public services, the government has been able to implement the reconstruction, rehabilitation and dualization of some roads in Nigerian states such as Katsina, Abia, Rivers, Ogun and Anambra (Alao & Alao, 2013).
4. According to the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator Anyim Pius Anyim, the Jonathan Administration has been able to make significant achievements in advancing rule of law, promoting citizen rights and democratic institutions (Transformation Watch, 2013).
5. As a landmark achievement in this democratic regime, the president had signed the Freedom of Information Act which was passed into law and this grants 'unfettered freedom to the media' (Transformation Watch, 2011) as well as promotes the citizens rights to freedom of public opinion.
6. Reforms implemented in the agricultural sector had ended the usual fertilizer supply scams that were reported to have supposedly run into billions of naira yearly (Transformation Watch, 2013).
7. Another remarkable achievement is that payment from the Petroleum Equalization Fund for bridging of petroleum products is said to be on full migration to an electronic platform to process claims in order to block leakages (Transformation Watch, 2013).
8. A new media platform has been initiated and introduced by the Jonathan Administration for citizens to send questions as regards the governments' actions which is in a bid to promote good governance and transparency in the governance process as well as showcase to the public the successes and challenges of governance (Transformation Watch, 2013).
9. For the first time in the history of Nigeria, the Federal Government has succeeded in establishing a platform whereby the cabinet ministers as well as Nigerian home and abroad can interact on a multi-media platform which is called 'the Ministeral Platform', where the ministers can appropriately give a proper account to Nigerians as regards the programmes and policies embarked on in their ministries (Transformation Watch, 2013).
DIVERSIFICATION EFFORTS OF THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA
The government has envisaged the importance of diversifying the economy away from its total dependence on the oil sector, which has its natural resources as depleting assets. As stressed in the Federal Ministry of Finance Report (2014), Nkojo Iweala, the Co-ordinating Minister for the economy announced that Nigeria's natural resource endowments are depleting assets which is a problem to the country as they would become exhausted at some point later in the future, and if these depleting assets are not wisely invested and reserved or saved the country would become poorer as these resources are non-renewable and much more there may be no investments or reserves for the country to use. However, Nwaozuzu (2014) mentioned that the transformation of the oil and gas sector would lead to a diversification of the Nigerian economy into agriculture, information and telecommunications technology and manufacturing sectors.
The Jonathan administration in a bid to address or rectify the mono cultural state of Nigeria's economy which isn't favorable to spurring able development, has decided to encourage the diversification of the economy away from the oil and gas sector by addressing the infrastructure deficit in the country as well as develop the agricultural sector through the modernization and establishment of the staple-crop processing zones, with the value chain model to provide linkages to the manufacturing sector (African economic outlook.org).
In diversifying the economy, the Jonathan administration has affirmatively increased an aggressive investment in the agricultural sector which is evident from the achievements aforementioned in the sector and that has started paying off.
In The Federal Ministry of Finance Report, it was mentioned that the National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP) which aims at industrializing Nigeria and diversifying the economy into sectors such as agro-processing, light manufacturing and petrochemicals has been launched. Accordingly, Nigeria had been named the number one destination for investments in Africa by UNCTAD (the UN Conference on Trade and Development), attracting over $7 billion in FDI as at the end of 2013 fiscal year and in supporting the drive for diversifying the economy, the government has facilitated the manufacturing sector by successfully negotiating a 'strong Common External Tariff (CET) agreement' with Nigeria's ECOWAS partners which would apparently help in protecting Nigeria's strategic industries where necessary (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014:8).
This Day Magazine (1 March, 2013) stated that inherent in the DNA of the Transformation Agenda is the determination of the Jonathan Administration to diversify the economy away from oil and make sure that the external sectors such as manufacturing, agricultural, solid minerals and services sectors are vibrant and thriving.
Indeed the Federal Government has begun making attempts and implementing its plans in fostering the diversification of the Nigerian economy. The Jonathan Administration has thus taken into serious consideration sectors such as the agricultural, manufacturing, solid minerals, creative industries and other services sectors.
THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
In the agricultural sector, evidences have shown how serious the Federal Government has taken the diversification of the economy via its aggressive implementation and fruitful yielding Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). The ATA has succeeded in achieving several feats that has made the diversification of the economy a fruitful effort. Asides the reforms the government has made in curtailing corruption in the sector as well as improving infrastructure to help farmers in rural areas, the government has succeeded in decentralizing the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to the states level in order to spur more effectiveness, where 36 new state Directors of Agriculture were appointed as well as 6 Regional Directors of Agriculture (Agriculture Revolution, 2014). Furthermore as detailed in the Agricultural Revolution (2014), in diversifying the economy via the ATA, the government has initiated the following transformations:
1. Cassava Transformation: here there has been a significant increase in cassava production and export of dried cassava chips that began in July 2012 as well as an aggressive expansion of the cassava market via developing high quality cassava to replace 40% of wheat imports, native modified starch, high fructose cassava syrup and ethanol.
2. Rice Transformation: here 13 new private sector mills have been established with a total capacity of 240, 000 MT and significantly the FG has recorded the successful entry of the local rice into the market which has displaced imported rice due to the former's high quality, price and taste.
3. Sorghum Transformation: here 4 High Yielding Sorghum Hybrids have been released to revolutionize sorghum in Nigeria and also 70 hectares of certified seed plots have been planted by seed companies such as IAR and ICRISAT in 5 states. Also focused here is the creation of 3 value chains such as fortified foods, malt beverages, drinks and foods as well as High Quality Sorghum Flour (HQSF).
4. Cocoa Transformation: 8 new high yielding fast maturing cocoa hybrids have been released as an effect to revolutionize the cocoa sector.
5. Oil Palm Transformation: the value chain aims at transforming the oil palm industry in Nigeria as well as to target increasing vegetable oil production in order to achieve import substitution and cancel out the deficit usually experienced through import by 350, 000 MT.
6. Cotton Transformation: this has been attested to be one of the greatest feats of the Transformation Agenda of Goodluck Jonathan as the country never had any improved cotton seeds at the start of Goodluck Jonathan's Administration and impressively, the Transformation Agenda has been able to collaborate with the West African Cotton Limited (WACOT) in a trade agreement to develop 25, 000 hectares of improved cotton seed multiplication holdings by the year 2015.
As a means of diversifying the economy of Nigeria, the Federal Government has invested in the manufacturing sector by supporting private sector initiatives; where for example in 2013, it commissioned a $2.2 billion Western Metal Production Company (WEMPCO) Limited Complex at Ibafo, Ogun State with a production capacity of 700,000 metric tonnes of steel annually and creation of an additional 5,500 jobs (Mid Term Report). Another significant achievement here is that Nigeria has been able to attain a position of being a net exporter of cement rather than a net importer which resulted in the absence of payment of import permit for the importation of cement in the whole of 2012 which saved the nation from expending over N200 billion from our foreign reserves (Mid Term Report).
The Federal Government via the Transformation Agenda has attempted diversifying the econmy again by fostering investments in the solid mineral sector. Nigeria is known to be well endowed with a variety of several solid minerals that ranges from metallic minerals to mineral fuel, gemstones, precious metals and dimension stones (Mid Term Report). The government has thus succeeded in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in this sector where about 50 companies from various countries across the globe have showed interest in investing in the sector and also, mineral production has been recorded to have increased from 21% in 2011 to 143.6% in 2012 (Mid Term Report).
Culture, Tourism and Entertainment
Nigeria has been attested to have the potential to colossally secure high foreign exchange as well as generate employment opportunities for its populace via its cultural, tourist and entertainment potentials and this current administration in recognition of this potentialities has decide to maximize the opportunities embedded here as part of its intention or plans to diversify the country's economy as well as generate huge revenues and jobs. The Transformation Agenda has been able to support platforms for discovery of young talents in the creativity sector via the first and second creativity week held in Abuja in April 2012 and 2013 respectively; participation in international tourism fares such as World Trade Market (WTM) in London, FITUR in Spain, Arabia Travel Market in Dubai etc. as well as supported about 16 cultural festivals in the country held between May 2011 and April 2012 (Mid Term Report).
CHALLENGES OF THE TRANSFORMATION AGENDA
Indeed the Transformation Agenda embarked upon by the Jonathan Administration has made a considerable level of progress in attaining some of its targets, goals or objectives in transforming the country, especially viewing the achievements that has been made in the different sectors of the economy. However, as agreed by Alao & Alao (2013), despite the undeniable progress that has been made; especially economically (its attainment of the position as the largest economy in Africa surpassing South Africa), the full achievement or progress of these sectors have been constrained by some challenges which may hinder the full realization of the vision of the Transformation Agenda and much more jeopardize the chances of the country in attaining a prominent position as the one of the world's top twenty economies. Some of these challenges discovered in the course of this research work include:
1. Insecurity: this problem indeed serves as big threat to any country that is on a quest to attaining development or transformation. The problem of insecurity chases away investors that are interested in investing in an economy for fear of loss of their lives, business properties/ investments and money. The current crisis of insurgency or terrorism faced in the country now led by the nefarious Boko Haram terrorist group is a potential threat to foreign investors who may be interested in investing in the country. According to the Mid Term Report, attacks have been perpetuated by the Boko Haram sect on the government and international organization; the Nigerian Police Force Headquarters and The United Nations office in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory and despite the efforts of the Joint Task Force (JTF) to curtail them, their violent activities have worsened which has claimed the lives of many innocent people. Durojaiye in the Independent News reported that 'Activities of Boko Haram in Nigeria have taken their toll on businesses, particularly the hospitality industry, in Abuja and the North. As a result, a majority of hoteliers in the areas are bemoaning their situation, having lost business opportunities.' If the insecurity situation isn't curtailed soon enough Nigeria's vision 20:2020 may become a wild goose chase.
2. Uneven distribution of income: indisputably the problem of the wide gap in the distribution of the income from the nation's wealth of resources can't be overemphasized. Unequal income distribution is one major problem that has lingered in Nigeria. The situation is so pathetic that it was even attested that only 1% of the privileged Nigerians get access to 90% of the oil wealth, while the remaining 99% only have access to 10% of this wealth. The impressive GDP growth hasn't translated in an improvement in the standard of living or access to income by majority of Nigeria's populace which could hinder the goal of the transformation agenda in improving the standard of living of most Nigerians. Onwumere and Ozoh (2007) had correctly stated that Nigeria was only experiencing growth without development. If this isn't addressed, even if the GDP skyrockets to become that of U.S, but the per capita income of the citizens remain low, Nigeria can't be affirmed to have experience development which wouldn't speak well of the transformation agenda.
3. Insufficient Funds: This could hinder the smooth achievements or the total implementation of the programmes, policies and projects embedded in the Transformation Agenda. Onwumere (2007) had even attested that financial constraint is one of the most serious confronting the execution of plans in many countries. Engineer Arikpo in the Punch Newspaper (Friday March 9, 2014) had accused the Federal Government of underfunding the anti-corruption agencies going by the allocations earmarked for them in the 2014 budget under review. He further said that the total allocation to the EFCC, KPC and Code of Conduct Bureau, which are more or less our anti-corruption agencies, is a small fraction of the money earmarked for the office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (the Punch, 2014).
4. High Unemployment rate: this is one of the major shortcoming s of the Transformation Agenda. In the Mid Term Report released, it revealed that the employment percentage rate had increased, which is unhealthy for development. Despite the fact that Nigeria had witnessed an impressive GDP growth, the rate of unemployment hasn't improved. When Jonathan came into office from a statistics shown by the www.tradineconomics.com, in 2010 the unemployment rate was 19.7% but as at 2012 it increased to 23.9%. This has been attested to be as a result of the significant growth in the number of active population which has made the created jobs to be insufficient (Mid Term Report). The government has to therefore make more aggressive efforts towards job creation as attested by Okonjo Iweala in the Report released by the Federal Ministry of Finance in January 2014
5. Corruption: the Federal Government had attested that corruption is one of the major constraints to economic and social development in Nigeria which constitutes a major disincentive for the Nigerian economy as well as increases the cost of governance and doing business (Mid Term Report). The way and manner Nigeria is being internationally conceived as a corrupt country has caused it a dented a image as well as negatively affecting Nigeria's global competiveness and the challenge of combating corruption in Nigeria has been attributed to the subordination of the EFCC by the Ministry of Justice which bars the former being allowed to exercise its prosecutorial mandate which has caused it a discredit in the anti-corruption campaign (Mid Term Report). Corruption is a cankerworm that has notoriously eaten deep into the Nigerian system and has for long hindered the country from experiencing true development having corrupted the fabrics that would have been necessary to uplift the country economically, politically and socially; and if this isn't curbed the Transformation Agenda's goal of attaining growth and development of the Nigeria economy may just become unrealizable as corruption and development are two variables that can never agree to achieve a balanced equation of progress.
6. Inadequate statistics: this may affect an accurate and successful realization of the transformation agenda under certain sectors where adequate planning is needed as, if adequate data is not available. Onwumere (2007) affirmed that inadequate data is a problem that constrains proper development planning in many countries which may lead to spurious projections and a consequence of this is an outcome of the formulation of plans which have a tendency of either over expanding the economy thereby creating rapid inflation and balance of payment problems or not adequately focusing on the problems confronting the economy.
7. Pipeline Vandalism: the Federal Ministry of Finance has reported that Nigeria has experienced several disruptions to oil production and this could affect the successful attainment of the objective of the transformation agenda and it further mentioned that Nigeria's economy has suffered from oil theft and pipeline vandalism severally in 203 which caused a loss of apparently 300,000-400,000 barrels per day which led to a depletion in the external reserves and external revenue account. This is not healthy as the oil sector has been conceived as a channel to be used to drive the diversification of the Nigerian economy from the huge proceeds coming from it, but vandalism of the pipelines serves as a devourer that may hinder the attainment of the goal of the Transformation Agenda in the oil sector's transformation.
8. Oil as a major contributor to the government's revenue: truly oil has drastically reduced as the main contributor to the country's GDP as attested to by the Federal Ministry of Finance from the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics which placed oil contribution to the GDP at -0.53 % and the non-oil sector at 7.95% in the 3rd Quarter of 2013 (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014). However, oil still significantly serves as the major contributor of the government's revenue where the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation (OAGF) placed oil receipts to contribute about 79.78% to the government's revenue in 2012 while the non-oil receipts was just a paltry 20.22%. This serves as a challenge to the Transformation Agenda as a result of the nature of volatility of prices which oil is subjected to in the international market. Onwumere (2007) postulated that most plans formulated in the country are based on projected future export prices of which petroleum is the chief export revenue earner in the country and that the prices of this resource are always subject to volatility or fluctuation in the international market and in cases where they plummet or fall, it becomes a constraint to the implementation of the plans. Also, the U.S has risen lately as a potential threat to oil producers in the world with its further discovery of oil and its new decision that has been taken by the President. The Federal Ministry of Finance had revealed that U.S has started taking measures to become a net exporter of oil and is determined to overtake Saudi Arabia as the largest oil producing nation by 2017 and to become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 as well as self-sufficient in energy by 2035. This has already started affecting Nigeria, as U.S being one of its major importers of oil has reduced its import of Nigeria oil from 318, 069 bbd in 2008 to about 248,340 bbd currently (Federal Ministry of Finance, 2014). This calls for a more aggressive effort of Nigeria to diversify its economy away from oil as its major government revenue earner as well begin to invest in order forms of energy sources.
9. Wide macroeconomic gap between Nigeria and other countries that are currently topping the top 20 economies list: well except Nigeria consistently keeps us with a high level of aggressive, prudent and disciplined effort and relentless determination to become one of the top twenty economies by 2020, such vision may just be vacillating in statement but impotent in action and much more, those behind it may just surpass it. What presents itself as a critical source of concern to the country in attaining the transformation agenda is the wide gap or asymmetry between Nigeria and the currently top twenty economies. In Alao & Alao (2013) study, they compared Nigeria with Brazil which was the 20th largest economy in the world in a bid to determine how close the Transformation Agenda programme is able to achieve the Vision 20:2020. They revealed that the development gap between Brazil and Nigeria was awesomely wide; where when Nigeria's GDP Per Capita stands at US $i,631 Brazil's GDP Per Capita is at US $41, 740 thus recording a growth rate at 2.7% and 7.1% respectively (CIA World Fact Book 2013 as cited by Alao & Alao, 2013:10) and thus concluded from their analysis that it would take Nigeria 47 years to reach the current average level of Brazil's GDP Per Capita and that Nigeria would have to double her growth rate by 54% in order to have her GDP Per Capita equalized by 2020, adding that it also has to grow by 28% to prevent a more widened gap Brazil has from her by 2020. For Nigeria to achieve this, the government in cooperation with the citizens has to work doggedly hard to ensure re in the country is conducive enough to meet this Vision 20:2020 and most of the problems that constitute challenges to development and the Transformation Agenda are critically tackled.
African Economic Outlook.org, 2013
Agricultural Revolution of the Transformation Agenda- Retrieved from
http://am4gej.org/ult_articles_pages/achievements-agriculture.php on 6-02-2014.
Akinlo, O.O (2009). 'Key Issues in Nigerian Development in the 2st century' Journal of
Economics and Social Studies. Volume 6.
Alao, D.O & Alao, I.O (2013): A Mid Term Evaluation of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan Transformation Agenda (May 2011-May 2013). Journal of Research and Development 1(1).
Chijoke, Nwozuzu (2014). 'Nigeria: Government's Transformation Agenda-Fixing PPMC Supply/ Distribution network'. http://allafrica.com/. Retrieved on 22-04-2014
Dr. J.U.J. Onwumere (2006) 'Economic Planning: Meaning, Objectives/ Relevance and Problems' in Onwumere, J.U.J & Ozoh, F.O (ed) Planning for Economic Development (with Illustrations from Nigeria) . Lagos: Don-Vinton Limited.
Federal Ministry of Finance (2014): 'Responses to the 50 Questions on Nigeria's
Economy posed by the House of Representatives' Committee on Finance.
http://cdn.gfmag.com -economy and GDP performance\Nigeria GDP Data & Country
Report Global Finance in 2010.mht-Retrieved on 20-04-2014.
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com - Nigeria Economic indicators- Retrieved on 20-04-2014.
http://countryeconomy.com/hdi/nigeria- Nigeria's Human Development Index (HDI). Retrieved on 18-02-2014.
Retrieved on 7-04-2014.
http://www.workmall.com/wfb2010/nigeria/nigeria_economy.html- Nigerian economy from 2010 CIA World fact book- Retrieved on 20-04-2014.
Cypher, James M and Dietz, James L (2009). The Process of Economic Development, New York: Routledge.
Dangana, Job (2011). Building a New Nigeria: The Right Approach, Volume 6. Kaduna: First Pyramid Digital Publishing Co.Ltd.
Mid Term Report of the Transformation Agenda (May 2011-May 2013): Taking Stock, Moving Forward.
Ministry of Information and Communication (2011): 'Twelve Months of the Transformation: From Power to Action (Projecting 12 Months of Transformation Strides of the Federal Government, May 2010- May 2011).
National Planning Commission (2011): The Transformation Agenda Summary of Federal Government's Key Priority Policies, Programmes and Projects (2011-2015).
Salisu, Haiba (2014): 'Updated Achievements of the National Planning Commision'.
http://am4gej.org/ult_articles_pages/achievements-agriculture.php. Retrieved on 22-04-2014.
Taylor, Steve L (2014). 'Nigeria's GDP Largest in Africa'. http://www.outsidethebeltway.com. Retrieved on 08-04-2014.
The 2013 Presidential Mid-Term Report (2013)
The Punch Newspaper, March 9th Friday, 2014.
This Day (March 1st 2013). 'Nigeria: Jonathan's Transformation Agenda and Diversifying Nigeria's Economy'. http://allafrica.com/-Retrieved on 07-04-2013.
www.indexmundi.com . 'Gross Investment Percentage'- Retrieved on 22-042014.
SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Indeed the importance of economic planning in engendering the true attainment of development in an economy can't be emphasized, as different scholars have attested too. However, the implementation process of such plans, policies or reforms in such a country is paramount to determining the level at which such goals of development would be attained. Nigeria as this research shows has had several development plans formulated even before it gained independence till date, but most of them have treaded on a trajectory of partial fulfillment or futility in their targets. The manner at which most of these development plans, policies and reforms haven't experienced successful implementations or realization has been attributed to problems such as corruption, inadequate data or statistics, inconsistency, political instability, economic restraints and so on. Learning from the mistake of successive government, the Jonathan Administration has been able to formulate a Transformation Agenda under the jurisdiction of economic experts and technocrats that have been set up to initiate the policies, programmes and projects entrenched as well as subsequently monitor its implementation. The transformation agenda has shown prudence by embracing the principles of continuity and consistency, which was highly lacking in other regimes; by continuing from where others stopped, which is visible via its integration of the Vision 20:2020 into the Transformation Agenda that emanates from the National Implementation Plan (NIP).
This research has been able to answer the research questions posed on the achievements of the transformation agenda in spurring development; its capability of improving the capacity of the refineries in Nigeria for enhanced domestic consumption as well as its capacity to spearhead the diversification of the country's economy.
The Transformation Agenda as discovered in this research has been able to attain some significant achievements that has helped in fostering development in the country to some extent which is visible in different sectors of the economy; for example the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector has witnessed a significant improvement via the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) that has been heralded which has accelerated food production, created more job opportunities and improved the economy via its contribution from its products export. The country was also able to witness a significant macroeconomic achievement with an increased GDP that has made it currently surpass South Africa as the largest economy.
The transformation Agenda to a reasonable extent has began transforming the oil and gas sector via its reforms and policies, which has provided more refineries. A significant development here is the PPP initiative that encourages a private investors in these sector especially in the management or ownership of refineries in collaboration with the government to spur better efficiency or improvement in the refineries of the country, which has begun paying off positively as mentioned in this research.
In terms of the diversification of the country's economy, the Transformation Agenda has apparently scored good points here which are evident from its efforts so far in spearheading this task. For example as observed in the agricultural sector, there is an ongoing diversification via the production of cash and food crops such as rice, sorghum, cassava, cotton, cocoa and so on which are produced domestically and processed; which has contributed to the country's foreign reserves via their exports. The government has also considered investing in the Solid minerals sector, creative industries and Tourism potentials of the country as espoused in this study.
Conclusively, the total transformation of a country is not a day's job that can be achieved on a platter of gold. This is to say that despite the fact the Transformation Agenda is undergoing a couple of challenges, amongst which is significantly the issue of insecurity, it's not an abnormality for such challenges to arise; as Soludo (2006) even attested that Nigeria's desire of achieving such a huge feat of joining the league of industrialized countries, comes with huge challenges that needs to be vigorously tackled. Therefore, for an attainment of a successful transformation agenda of Nigeria, the government needs to sustain its programme of reforms come rains, sun or hail and must be equally committed and continued even if there is a change in regime.
This research has its thrust to be on Nigeria's development via focusing on how the government via the Transformation Agenda has been able to enhance the refinery capacity of the oil refineries, spearhead the diversification of the country's economy and its achievements so far in fostering development in the country and some findings that were made engenders a conclusion to be made as thus.
Certain significant achievements have been made under the Transformation Agenda in the country which cuts across different key sectors of the economy. Some indices have improved far from where the administration met it in sectors such as Transportation for example, which has the erstwhile moribund rail lines now working; in the power sector there is an alternative investment spearheaded in the Wind source of energy which accelerate electricity generation in the country and the government importantly has been able to privatize the electricity sector which is now being run by 12 companies distinctly handling generation, distribution and transmission of power. The GDP of the country has recorded a high increase after the just concluded rebasing exercise which has placed Nigeria as the largest economy of Africa. But despite this, as discovered in the course of research, albeit the rise in the GDP of Nigeria, which is also a sin qua non for measuring development; there has been a rise in the unemployment rate of the country, which a scholar like Onwumere (2007) attests to be experiencing economic growth without development. This problem had been attributed to the high rise in the country's active populace.
In terms of the refining capacity of the refineries which are still undergoing reforms, there have been some improvements. It was discovered that the government had initiated and implemented some initiatives to enhance the oil industry and refineries in the country. An evidence of one of the dividends of these reforms, is the evident rise in the production of oil in the country which rose from 2.35 million bpd in 2013 to 2.37 million bpd in 2014. The government had also implemented the PPP initiative which would enhance the operation of these refineries that have been hitherto mismanaged under the public sector. This has encouraged prominent investors like Aliko Dangote to add to the refineries present in the country which would spur better access to petroleum products and domestic consumption. However, activities such as pipeline vandalism have been found to hinder the successful improvement of the sector.
The study found out that Nigeria is no longer a mono cultural economy as it used to be tagged. This is so because of the data established from credible sources as regards the current sectoral contribution of the country's economy from different sectors. The oil sector was discovered to have drastically reduced in its contribution to the country's GDP, which is a far cry from what used to obtain in the 1970's, whereas the non-oil sector that is made up of agriculture, manufacturing, business and services, banking and finance make up a larger percentage of the country's GDP. This shows that the Transformation Agenda has practically succeeded in its aim of diversifying the country's economy.
Finally, several challenges were found out to serve as hindrance to the successful realization of the transformation agenda, especially the challenge of insecurity. The Boko Haram sect with their nefarious terrorist activities has put the country in a state of civil unrest which is a big disincentive to foreign investors. Such violence or conflict can hinder the development of a country's economy has it has an unfavorable domino effect that encumber development. Though the government has tried to curtail their activities, it hasn't yielded positive results. If such issues of insecurity as well as other challenges experienced in the country aren't tackled, the Transformation Agenda may end up as others whose marks are yet to be significantly recognized in the sands of time or as an unfulfilled vision.
Having engaged in this research study, from the findings that have been made so far, the efforts and achievements of the government along the trajectory of the Agenda, there are certain things the government still needs to do in spurring development under the areas or focus of this study.
For the country to experience development, I recommend the following to be given full consideration, especially under the current administration and subsequent ones to come:
AUTONOMY OF STATE IN RESOURCE EXPLOIITATION/MAXIMIZATION
I recommend that all states in Nigeria distinctly exploit their own natural resources to create revenues for them. Nigeria is abundantly endowed with natural resources that are dispersed across the states in the federation. If such resources can be explored and well maximized, it would further spur the diversification efforts of the government and asides just creating more revenue, the dependence of the state government on the central government for allocation of revenues would be reduced. Much more, states can independently execute projects, policies and reforms at the state level without necessarily waiting for the long process of budget approval.
INCREASED STORAGE RESERVES OF OIL AND PRODUCED FOODS
The government should make adequate provision for the storage of oil reserves for future generations rather than sell most of the oil. Projections should be made for the future, so in an event where oil becomes depleted or exhausted in some point in the future, the upcoming generations can have sufficient reserves to fall back on, just like countries like America have long adopted. Also, the agricultural sector should create adequate reserves for food storage just like Joseph did when he was made Prime Minister of Egypt in biblical times. These reserves would be kept for future use and in the case of any unseen circumstance that may jeopardize the availability of such products or resources.
CONTINUITY, COMMITMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN REALIZATION OF DEVELOPMENT PLANS
Nigerian leaders must ensure that they embrace the principle of being committed to the implementation of development plans, reforms and policies regardless of what happens. They must completely shy away from the habit of impunity and acting in whatever way they please, as this would discourage citizens from being hopeful, allegiant or supportive of government's policies or plans in the country. Alongside being committed, the government must ensure that it continues from where its successors stopped in developing the country as such sudden changes come with effects that are difficult to adapt to.
EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICENCY
The agencies or committees that are being established in driving the Transformation Agenda must be assuredly effective and efficient in the dispensation of their duties from the apex level to the lowest. The government should create a credible evaluation platform that would assess their performances, where a high level of discipline must be upheld in carrying out such duties.
CONSTRUCTION OF MORE REFINERIES
Though the Transformation Agenda has initiated plans to construct refineries, however more should be constructed to meet the domestic consumption or needs of the growing populace and business to prevent the event of shortage. This would also drastically reduce our importation of petroleum products or refined oil abroad and simultaneously encourage domestic production that would generate more income domestically as well as increase the foreign reserves.
TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY
The government should endeavor to spur the transfer of technology in order to curtail the high dependence on foreign goods. Here Nigeria needs to upgrade her acquisition of the infrastructures needed to manufacture products domestically in the industries. For Nigeria to be truly developed, it has to upgrade its technological development. Even alongside building refineries, the machineries needed to process these products on diversified grounds should be acquired.
APPEAL TO NIGERIAN'S IN DIASPORA AND CURTAILMENT OF BRAIN DRAIN
The government should intensify efforts to appeal to Nigerians in Diaspora to return home so as to combine joint efforts in achieving the transformation agenda as well as developing the country's economy. A lot of intelligent Nigerians who are making good waves across different walks of life to the benefit of various countries they reside should be appealed to return home, however by an assurance of the government about seriousness in transforming the country's economy. Via an upgrade of the tertiary institutions and development of sophisticated and required infrastructures required for proper education and training of Nigerian students, the event of brain drain where Nigerian youths flock abroad for better study would be reduced. A disadvantage of this brain drain is that when most of them study abroad, carried away by the better standard of living, they lose interest in returning home. This must be checked, as more skilled brains are needed in various sectors and industries in transforming the country especially in the sciences.
IMPLEMENTATION OF PETROLEUM INDUTRIAL BILL (PIB)
The government should hasten up a speedy implementation of the PIB which has embedded in plans and reforms that would positively reform and improve the petroleum industry and especially spur an improvement in the operation of refineries that would readily enhance the availability of these petroleum products as well as enhance domestic consumption.
DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
The government must put in more efforts to enhance the even distribution of income. There is a wide asymmetry between the rich and poor in Nigeria. A lot of Nigerians do not have access to the huge wealth of the nation that is being embezzled by corrupt politicians or greedy cabals. The government must create incentives such as better job opportunities, state payment of bursaries, timely payment of pensions and allowances for the inactive or dependent (mostly aged population).
UPGRADED SYSTEM IN CURBING THE ISSUE OF INSECURITY
Nigeria should align itself with advanced countries who have adopted sophisticated and complex means of tackling issues of insurgency or terrorism. The army should be supplied with sophisticated weapons and technology that can intelligently solve the issue of insecurity on ground which has affected the smooth realization of the transformation agenda. The government must ensure security is provided round the state and not just in high areas or urban centers where the high and mighty resides. The intelligence agency of the country must be upgraded to the standard of advanced countries like the U.S and provision should be made for those therein to be highly trained with more experts recruited.
Akinlo, O (2009). 'Key Issues in Nigerian Development in the 2st century' Journal of Economics and Social Studies. Volume 6.
Salisu, Haiba (2014): 'Updated Achievements of the National Planning Commision'. http://am4gej.org/ult_articles_pages/achievements-agriculture.php. Retrieved on 22-04-2014.
1. African Economic Outlook.org, 2013
2. Agricultural Revolution of the Transformation Agenda- Retrieved from
3. http://am4gej.org/ult_articles_pages/achievements-agriculture.php on 6-02-2014.
4. Alao, D.O & Alao, I.O (2013): A Mid Term Evaluation of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan Transformation
5. Agenda (May 2011-May 2013). Journal of Research and Development 1(1).
6. Chijoke, Nwozuzu (2014). 'Nigeria: Government's Transformation Agenda-Fixing PPMC
Supply/ Distribution network'. http://allafrica.com/. Retrieved on 22-04-2014
7. Dr. J.U.J. Onwumere (2006) 'Economic Planning: Meaning, Objectives/ Relevance and
Problems' in Onwumere, J.U.J & Ozoh, F.O (ed) Planning for Economic Development (with Illustrations from Nigeria) . Lagos: Don-Vinton Limited.
8. Federal Ministry of Finance (2014): 'Responses to the 50 Questions on Nigeria's
Economy posed by the House of Representatives' Committee on Finance.
9. http://cdn.gfmag.com -economy and GDP performance\Nigeria GDP Data & Country
Report Global Finance in 2010.mht-Retrieved on 20-04-2014.
10. http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com - Nigeria Economic indicators- Retrieved on 20-04-2014.
11. http://countryeconomy.com/hdi/nigeria- Nigeria's Human Development Index (HDI). Retrieved on 18-02-2014.
12. http://transformationwatch.com/2013/01/04/.end-of-year-media-briefing-on-the-major-achievements-of-the-federal-government-in-2012-by-the-minister-of-information-labaran-maku-held-at-the-national-press-centre-radio-house-abuja-on-31st-december -
Retrieved on 7-04-2014.
13. http://www.workmall.com/wfb2010/nigeria/nigeria_economy.html- Nigerian economy from 2010 CIA World fact book- Retrieved on 20-04-2014.
14. Cypher, James M and Dietz, James L (2009). The Process of Economic Development. New York: Routledge.
15. Dangana, Job (2011): Building a New Nigeria: The Right Approach, Volume 6. Kaduna: First Pyramid Digital Publishing Co.Ltd.
16. Mid Term Report of the Transformation Agenda (May 2011-May 2013): Taking Stock, Moving
17. Ministry of Information and Communication (2011): 'Twelve Months of the Transformation: From Power to Action (Projecting 12 Months of Transformation Strides of the Federal Government, May 2010- May 2011).
18. NPC (2011): The Transformation Agenda Summary of Federal Government's Key Priority Policies,
Programmes and Projects (2011-2015).
19. Taylor, Steve L (2014). 'Nigeria's GDP Largest in Africa'. http://www.outsidethebeltway.com. Retrieved on 08-04-2014.
20. The 2013 Presidential Mid-Term Report (2013)
21. The Punch Newspaper, March 9th Friday, 2014.
22. This Day (March 1st 2013). 'Nigeria: Jonathan's Transformation Agenda and Diversifying Nigeria's Economy'. http://allafrica.com/-Retrieved on 07-04-2013.
23. www.indexmundi.com . 'Gross Investment Percentage'- Retrieved on 22-042014.
Source: Essay UK - http://buystrangestuff.com/free-essays/economics/nigeria-economy.php
If this essay isn't quite what you're looking for, why not order your own custom Economics essay, dissertation or piece of coursework that answers your exact question? There are UK writers just like me on hand, waiting to help you. Each of us is qualified to a high level in our area of expertise, and we can write you a fully researched, fully referenced complete original answer to your essay question. Just complete our simple order form and you could have your customised Economics work in your email box, in as little as 3 hours.
This Economics essay was submitted to us by a student in order to help you with your studies.
This page has approximately words.
If you use part of this page in your own work, you need to provide a citation, as follows:
Essay UK, Nigeria's Economy. Available from: <http://buystrangestuff.com/free-essays/economics/nigeria-economy.php> [22-03-18].
If you are the original author of this content and no longer wish to have it published on our website then please click on the link below to request removal: